Reindeer Husbandry and Barents 2030

Scenario development involving changes in natural con- ditions, biodiversity and alternation of habitat has under- gone a rapid development in the past 10 years, such as through UNEP and affiliated programs like the Millen- nium Ecosystem Assessment, GLOBIO and the IPCC (IPCC 2007, UNEP 2003, 2007). Global and regional programs now usually involve at least four different sce- narios for each timeline (www.globio.info, UNEP 2003). Hence, we present a range of scenarios all linked to the GLOBIO SCENARIOS GLOBIO SCENARIO MODEL The GLOBIO2-model is being developed for and to- gether with UNEP (United Nations Environment Pro- gramme) to help assess and map the environmental impact of human development (UNEP 2007). The model has been used by a broad range of regional and global scenarios by several UN-programmes, including UNESCO, UNDP and UNEP. GLOBIO compiles scientific knowledge on global environ- mental change into a format that is compatible with the needs of policymaking. The model incorporates buffer zones of probability of reduced abundance of wildlife around infrastructure features, such as roads, human settlements, industrial development, etc. By

Barlindhaug scenarios to provide a broader range of possible outcomes of the development schemes. This is particularly important as a number of variables, includ- ing government policies and municipality policies, may greatly mitigate or change the impacts on reindeer hus- bandry of the current projected development schemes. The geographical areas covered are the reindeer pas- tures from Nordland County, Norway, to Jugorskij Polu- ostrov and Novaya Zemlya in north-west Russia. using distance zones with varying degree of impacts caused by infrastructure, it is possible to predict the approximate area of impact zones in the future by simple regression analyses using different alterna- tives of growth. GLOBIO is thus primarily a tool for communicating and visualizing environmental chang- es in such a way that it can be used in sustainable development planning and international agreements on protection of biodiversity and natural habitats. For detailed methodology, please see appendix 3 and www.globio.info. The scenarios without additional petroleum development (assumption a) are based on the “policy first” scenarios in UNEP (2003).

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