Reindeer Husbandry and Barents 2030

Figure 4a–c. The Barlindhaug scenarios of increased petroleum development in Northern Scandinavia and the Barents Sea (Barlindhaug 2005).

As pointed out by Arbo et al . (2007), the Barlindhaug report is clearly written from a Norwegian point of view. It takes for granted that large areas will be opened for exploration, that new recoverable fields will be discov- ered, that oil and gas prices will stay high enough to drill for petroleum under Arctic conditions, that Russian authorities will consider a Norwegian pipeline system as useable, and that the Barents Region will remain a politically stable area with close cooperation between Norway and Russia. Arbo et al . concludes that the re- port is a vision and a contribution to an ongoing debate, with both limitations and substance. Herein, we use the Barlindhaug scenarios in combination with UNEP’s GLOBIO scenarios to illustrate several possible futures seen from the perspective of reindeer husbandry. Our scenarios cannot claim to be more scientific or neutral than the Barlindhaug scenarios, but unlike Barlindhaug we open up for several possible outcomes depending on varying future conditions (Arbo et al . 2007).

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