Reindeer Husbandry and Barents 2030

Sven Skaltje

BARLINDHAUG AND GLOBIO SCENARIOS COMBINED

GLOBIO scenarios show that currently approxi- mately 25% of the grazing land in Northern Norway is strongly disturbed by development, including 35% of the coastal area and the most productive calving grounds and summer ranges (UNEP/EEA 2004). This figure has been estimated to increase to as much as 78% by 2050 if no changes are made in national or regional policies. Up to 1% of the summer grazing grounds used tradi- tionally by Sámi reindeer herders along the coast of Northern Norway is lost every year, which is equiva- lent to the grazing land used by one nomadic family in summer (Jernsletten and Klokov 2002, UNEP 2004). Development pressure has been considerably lower in Russia. Although northwest Russia suffers from high local-point pollution, development has been concentrated, leaving more habitat undisturbed (www.globio.info). For this report, selected hotspots for oil and gas de- velopment were identified using the Barlindhaug sce- narios and fed into the GLOBIO models. Alteration and reduced use of pastures could then be compared using two different assumptions;

Infrastructure development in the Barents region will continue at the current growth rate towards 2030, without additional or increased growth due to petroleum development A range of oil and gas hotspots along the Norwegian and Russian coast, including LNG plants, process- ing plants and pipeline systems, will be developed by 2030 as assumed in the Barlindhaug report Both scenarios predict that continued development will substantially reduce grazing grounds in coastal areas used for summer ranges and calving grounds. Looking at coastal areas in the entire Barents Region including areas with no or little development on northern Kola and Novaya Zemlya, around 15% of the area is heavily impacted by human development. This figure is esti- mated to increase to 25% in 2030 given the current growth rate (assumption a). Assuming increased petro- leum development according to the Barlindhaug sce- narios (assumption b), 30% of the coastal areas will be highly impacted by human development in 2030. More specifically, assumption b will lead to deterioration of an additional 21 000 km 2 of reindeer grazing grounds, compared to assumption a. This is equivalent to the size of 2/3 of Finnmark’s summer ranges. a) b)

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