Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

3 9 1

OUTLOOK 2002–32

complex as membership grows and the increasing involvement of developing countries highlights the need to address equity issues such as burden-sharing and technology-sharing, in appropriate ways. Under Security First , the Antarctic legal regime essentially collapses as a result of rivalry between claimant states seeking to secure their putative rights, and other advanced technology states and entities that do not recognize those rights. In practice a small number of very large corporations and powerful states operate Antarctica as a joint franchise. The wider international community contests the legitimacy of this deal, but is unable to challenge the new hegemony to any practical effect. In Sustainability First , the Antarctic legal regime initially continues its gradual development. By the century’s third decade, however, piecemeal changes are no longer seen as sufficient. With more fundamental shifts in international norms under way, it becomes possible to tackle some of the key issues, including the claims to sovereignty in Antarctica and policies of the high seas. As resolution of these issues becomes feasible, the possibility arises of a more fundamental revision of the Antarctic legal regime. Under a new legal structure, no property rights can be assigned to any part of the continent or its resources. Heating up These differences, combined with the impacts on polar areas of activities and processes in other parts of the world, translate into a varied range of environmental implications under the four scenarios. Large increases in average polar temperatures are to be expected in all the scenarios, especially in the Arctic (see chart). Policy First and Sustainability First feature the highest increases up to 2032, reflecting the rapid abatement of emissions of sulphur oxides under these scenarios. Warming in Antarctica is less pronounced on account of the ocean currents in the area. In Security First , both areas suffer from proliferation of illegal production of ozone depleting substances, which obliterates the gains made earlier, in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Likewise, chemical pollutants originating from outside the region increase significantly in Security First due to weak regulation and in Markets First , where economic growth is higher. In Policy First and Sustainability First , efforts to phase out pollutants effectively terminate these problems.

Large increases in average polar temperature are to be expected for each of the scenarios, especially in the Arctic. The graph clearly shows that the change of temperature between 2002 and 2032 is far larger than the uncertainty. Source: IMAGE 2.2 (see technical annex)

Change in average temperature: Polar regions (°C per ten years)

2.00

Average calculated temperature change

Spread of results from four Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

1.75

Arctic

1.50

1.25

1.00

Antarctic

Markets First

0.75

Policy First

0.50

Security First

0.25

Sustainability First

0.00

Safety-nets for fish stocks A key area of concern in both regions is the health of fish and other marine stocks. The effects of a crash in Antarctic krill are examined in the box on page 393. There is a big increase in the number and sophistication of vessels employed, and harvesting increases massively in both the Antarctic and the Arctic in Markets First . The very rapid rate of industrial exploitation and abandonment of targeted fisheries means that management responses often lag behind events. Continued depletion of target populations leads to some population crashes and adverse impacts on associated species. In Policy First , the Antarctic marine ecosystem is placed under ever-increasing pressure as fishing proves the hardest resource activity to manage. Stark choices between commercial and development imperatives on the one hand, and environmental and ethical considerations on the other, prove difficult to reconcile. Underwater setting of lines and other technological developments eliminate seabird by- catch, but other forms of by-catch are unaffected and target stocks continue to be exploited beyond sustainable limits. In the Arctic, provision is made for