Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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OUTLOOK 2002–32

States, the Russian Federation, the Nordic states, and Canada compete to protect their respective northlands and their prized resources. Further splintering leaves power in the hands of an elite of commercial stakeholders. Some areas are subjected to ruthless exploitation and resource depletion. Local and indigenous peoples are increasingly marginalized. Unanimity of purpose is ruptured within communities of indigenous peoples, as key members of these communities and some of their organizations join forces with the multinational stakeholders. Although many people living in the Arctic gain a measure of economic independence, their existence becomes unstable. In Sustainability First , the Arctic Council becomes a forceful advocate for the new thinking about sustainable livelihoods. Strong social and environmental support networks are established throughout the circumpolar world. An overall conservation and development plan for the region is agreed and partly implemented by Arctic states. It includes a system of protected areas to ensure the continuing survival and development of Arctic biodiversity and heritage. The Arctic peoples strengthen traditional alliances and modern international partnerships to serve the common good as well as specific interests. Southern legal regime In a Markets First scenario, the Antarctic legal regime responds to some emerging issues yet increasingly runs up against entrenched stakeholder positions on points such as sovereignty and freedom of commercial access. There is a gradual addition of states, regional economic groupings and other international entities to the Antarctic Treaty System but most states continue to remain outside. Developing states are still (in effect) excluded from the system by lack of technology and funds. The Antarctic is increasingly penetrated by ‘pirate’ operators beyond the effective legal control of individual states or of international regimes. These operators are increasingly able to ‘regime-pick’ to sanction their particular activity. In a Policy First situation, the Antarctic legal regime recognizes the need to adopt new agreements and harmonize regional legal and global approaches. This stimulates new membership and new forms of membership, including non-state entities. Administering regional agreements becomes more

Implications: the Polar Regions Far more than in other regions, the environmental future of the polar regions is largely determined by global developments. The Arctic and Antarctic share various environmental concerns with other regions and with one another. Despite shared concerns, the two sub-regions that make up the GEO-3 Polar Region are very different in geographical circumstances, in their degree of isolation from major centres of population and human activity and in their legal status. In addition, unlike the Antarctic, the Arctic has a permanent human population, including indigenous peoples (see Chapter 2). Carving up the Arctic The evolution of governance structures for the Arctic and Antarctic determines, to a large extent, the environmental futures of the region. In a Markets First scenario, the Arctic Council does not live up to its goals and has limited impact on policy decisions affecting the Arctic and its constituent states. In the early 21st century, land-claim agreements are reached with all indigenous groups, giving them varying degrees of ownership and rights to Arctic resources. Multinational entrepreneurs negotiate legally binding agreements with local populations and indigenous people’s organizations for the rights to exploit the resources in exchange for cash and the promise of long-term local employment. However, much of this promised benefit does not play out and the local populations can do little to enforce the agreements. In Policy First , the Council partially lives up to its goals and its advice has significant impact on policy decisions affecting the region. The Council’s working groups and its observers successfully facilitate a vibrant environmental ethic and networks — especially among younger people — throughout the circumpolar world. Agreements reached between multinational entrepreneurs and local populations not only make provision for cash outlays and employment in exchange for exploration and production rights but also guarantee long-term management, part ownership and profit sharing rights. Where needed, the Council is effective in guaranteeing the latter are adhered to. In Security First , a highly splintered, factional circumpolar world emerges, in which the United