Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

3 9 2

OUTLOOK 2002–32

Wildlife rearguard Infrastructure developments, often related to fishing and tourism in both the Arctic and the Antarctic, and to oil, gas and other mineral development in the Arctic, expand significantly in a Markets First world (see chart for the situation in the Arctic). In the Antarctic, this includes spontaneous private colonization by a limited number of economically and technology-rich individuals or entities. In the Arctic, habitats of wide-ranging species, such as the caribou, reindeer, grizzly bear and musk ox are severely fragmented and encroached upon. All Arctic wildlife is substantially affected either directly or indirectly from the disruption of the food chain, from habitat loss and from the insidious impacts of climate change. Excessive hunting further reduces some of the populations to biologically unsustainable levels. In Policy First , these pressures are kept in check, although effects of decades of warming — on land and sea — are visible over large expanses. Responsible planning decisions have prevailed and wildlife habitat has remained relatively intact. In many cases this is due to the improved effectiveness of habitat management, particularly in protected areas which are now integrated into circumpolar and north–south networks. The numbers and size of protected areas have increased significantly, but many sites still have inadequate regulations on mineral, oil and gas exploration and extraction and hydropower generation. Hunting is sustainable in most parts of the Arctic and quotas are Antarctica becoming possible for personnel employed by industries active in the area and as a status symbol for the wealthy. Numbers of endemic wildlife in the Arctic plummet, the food chain is disrupted and genetic diversity is weakened due to habitat degradation and fragmentation. Opportunistic alien species able to survive in the warming climate have filled available niches. However, even they are having a hard time due to contamination by wastes and habitat destruction. In Sustainability First , biodiversity hot spots and habitats are protected and large areas are set aside as national parks or nature reserves to help wildlife cope with climate change. Small, regulated subsistence hunts are still allowed in accordance with agreements negotiated with indigenous peoples. The public does not tolerate poaching. Residence in the Antarctic is denied for anything other than specifically agreed purposes, generally scientific research. based on much improved scientific evidence. Security First sees permanent residence in

traditional local fisheries and for the engagement of local communities in international Arctic fisheries. Total collapse of any single fishery is averted using stringent harvesting quotas, limited entry schemes, and enforceable bilateral regimes. In Security First , illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing activities cease under direct pressure from the powerful new interests regulating the region. Exploitation of marine living resources by the new interests takes off, however, and rises to very high levels. Self-interest sees attempts to manage this activity at sustainable levels, with approaches including fish-farming and biotechnology. The ecological and economic consequences of this shift are still unresolved by 2032. In the Arctic, fishing rights are unilaterally withdrawn from all but the Arctic states. However, overfishing has already exacted a heavy toll and desperate conservation measures may be too late to secure the resources for the future. In Sustainability First , fish and marine mammals are rigorously defended against overexploitation. Quotas are reasonable and the resource base is healthy. Penalties for abuse are severe — and robustly enforced. One option being explored is to cap catches but set initial limits at a liberal level, then scale down from this level over a period of several decades. In the Antarctic, rights to fisheries are incrementally transferred from developed to developing world fleets. In the Arctic, local communities now manage most of the fisheries and potentially harmful practices such as trawling are outlawed in most areas.

Key to chart

Land area impacted by infrastructure expansion: Arctic (% of total land area)

Markets First

Policy First

2.0

Security First

1.5

Sustainability First

The Arctic holds the largest remaining undisturbed — but highly sensitive — wilderness in the world.

1.0

0.5

2002

Source: GLOBIO (see technical annex)

0

Arctic