Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

3 8 9

OUTLOOK 2002–32

Imagine … a major seven-year drought in West Asia

An extended drought occurs, starting late in the first decade of the century. A significant drop in groundwater resources has affected major aquifers in the region since the mid-1990s. Growing scarcity of irrigation and clean drinking water in the Mashriq sub-region leads to more dependency on food imports in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and proliferation of hunger and poverty in Mashriq countries and Yemen. As approximately 60 per cent of surface water resources in the region originate from outside, the potential exists for disagreements to escalate between countries over shared and depleted water resources.

In the case of … Markets First

Water resources policies focusing almost exclusively on ‘supply augmentation’ prove unwise in this drought-prone region. There is some movement towards demand management but this is not implemented quickly enough to avert major water shortages. There is mass dependency on desalination facilities in GCC countries. Cash crops in irrigated areas are halved, resulting in major deficits in locally grown food. New, genetically engineered, more drought-tolerant crops are introduced. Water-related health problems proliferate. Sweeping institutional reforms strengthen authorities in charge of water resources management. An existing policy focus on demand management, conservation and protection makes it relatively easy to introduce prompt additional measures that help eke out water supplies while drought conditions persist. Remedial instruments and programmes are introduced, including water pricing mechanisms, awareness and education campaigns, legislation to strengthen powers of enforcement, measures to boost the management of marginal waters, and codes to enable efficient water resources allocation among competing economic sectors. Economic integration and regional cooperation help modify agricultural policies in the Arabian Peninsula and reduce water consumption in the agricultural sector. Temporary agreements deal with the problems of shared water resources and help enhance regional stability. Competition and conflicts between sectors and users increase, leading to social unrest. There are widespread signs of increase in the rate of desertification and deterioration of biological resources combined with extinction of some species due to over-hunting and habitat destruction. Water-related health problems proliferate. Political instability and conflicts in the region mount, leading to open war over water resources, threatening regional and international stability. Strategic regional water resource and river basin management planning reduce impacts of drought, in turn enhancing the efficiency of water use, resource protection and water resources augmentation. Major institutional reforms further consolidate the authority of water resources management bodies. Previous policy shifts in favour of ‘demand management and conservation’ ease the way for additional measures to eke out water supplies. More freshwater is made available by desalination technology in the GCC countries, increasingly using alternative and renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, to run desalination plants. There is widespread application of biotechnology to crop production, to boost drought resistance and yields. More equitable sharing of surface and groundwater resources is achieved as riparian countries sign and ratify treaties to that effect. This process is helped by the resolution of the Arab–Israeli conflict. The lessons Developments not directly related to the environment, such as improvements in regional cooperation, can have a major impact on environmental issues. Similarly, the ways in which one environmental issue is tackled can have significant impacts on others, for instance the choice of renewable energy sources to power desalinization works reduces fossil-fuel burning. Experience and adoption of a mixed set of policy instruments allows greater flexibility to react swiftly in times of unexpected and increased environmental stress. Security First Sustainability First Policy First