Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

3 8 8

OUTLOOK 2002–32

All the pie charts show total region impacts. The top left pie shows the current situation, the relative size of the others reflects the magnitude of impacts by 2032 under the four scenarios. Average incomes rise in all regions, contributing to a drop in the percentage of the population that is hungry, but in Markets First and Security First , the benefits of growth are not enough to offset the growth in population and the total number of people affected by food shortages.

Population living with hunger: West Asia (million persons)

Markets First

region total 13

Mashriq 5

2002

Security First

Arabian Peninsula 8

Policy First

Sustainability First

Source: PoleStar (see technical annex)

hunger in the region (see charts). In both Markets First and Security First , the levels of hunger are still near 10 per cent in 2032. In the Markets First scenario, relatively high inequality persists, limiting the improvements that can be achieved from economic growth. In the Security First scenario, divergent income distributions worsen the situation even more. Combined with the population growth, the numbers of persons experiencing hunger increase by half in Markets First and approximately double in Security First . In Policy First and Sustainability First , a combination of relatively high economic growth and comparatively equitable income distributions leads to a sharp drop in the percentage hungry, as well as in the total.

Source: PoleStar (see technical annex)

Population living with hunger: West Asia (%)

14

Key to chart

12

2002

10

Markets First

8

6

Policy First

4

Security First

0 2

Sustainability First

These environmental trends, along with more broadly distributed economic growth and effective social policies, are reflected in the incidence of