Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

3 8 7

OUTLOOK 2002–32

threatened species and an overall and continual loss of biodiversity. These trends are counteracted to some degree in Policy First and Sustainability First circumstances by implementing land use management plans to reduce human pressures on natural ecosystems. Other counter measures include legislation protecting biodiversity and endangered species as well as regulating the introduction of foreign and genetically modified organisms. Only slower economic growth in Security First keeps the expansion of infrastructure and its impacts below that of Markets First . Other problems, particularly climate change, join with these pressures to diminish natural capital in the region in all scenarios. In Policy First , present efforts to enlarge protected areas continue and may reach international targets. In addition, regional cooperation and transboundary reserves are established between neighbouring countries. Public awareness is stimulated through botanical gardens and museums. These efforts go further in Sustainability First where there is greater local control of resources. The extent of protected areas reaches target levels, halting depletion of biological resources. Furthermore, the region witnesses an increase in cooperative regional research, investment and sustainable use of genetic and biological resources through the use of advanced technology. However, even here the efforts are not enough to fully counteract the effects of changing climate (see chart opposite). The somewhat slower onset of climate change in Markets First means that the losses to natural capital are somewhat less than in Policy First and Security First . In Security First , the introduction of foreign and genetically modified species carries on unregulated, posing a major additional threat to indigenous species in the region. Moreover, efforts already under way become increasingly ineffective under declining economic and environmental conditions and food insecurity. Significantly, many indigenous biological resources in the region could be completely lost. Differences in population growth, urban planning and zoning, rural area development and the situation of refugees all influence the level, type and impact of urbanization across the region. Rapid unplanned urbanization and high population concentrations caused by rapid population growth, rural to urban migration and the increase in refugee numbers are

Source: IMAGE 2.2 (see technical annex)

Energy-related nitrogen oxide emissions: West Asia (million tonnes nitrogen)

3

2

1

2002

0

West Asia (with Iran and Turkey)

factors in both Markets First and Security First . All have negative environmental and health consequences in terms of local air pollution (see chart), add to waste production and encourage encroachment on limited agricultural and recreational areas. Basic healthcare, sanitation and infrastructure facilities fail to cope. More effective urban planning and zoning prevail in Policy First and Sustainability First scenarios. Rural to urban migration is reduced conspicuously by well-planned integrated development of rural areas. In Sustainability First , rural area development includes environmental considerations to minimize encroachment and loss of agricultural and recreational lands, stimulating some reverse migration. Finally, in the Mashriq, the environmental and health problems associated with refugee centres are solved as part of the resolution of conflicts in the region. Associated with the differences in land use and freshwater management, as well as other developments, the scenarios also differ in their implications for coastal and marine areas. Under the Policy First and Sustainability First scenarios, member states in the Arabian Gulf ratify the Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) 73/78 and other established protocols, establish waste oil reception facilities and declare the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area a Special Area, which reduces oil pollution significantly. The Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-Based Activities is strictly implemented, controlling and significantly reducing sewage releases into the sea.