Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

3 8 6

OUTLOOK 2002–32

biotechnology in the field of food production and decrease in population growth rate in the region, help to counteract the effects of additional demand related to higher economic growth. In both scenarios, however, water scarcity persists and affects growing numbers of people as water demand continues to exceed available water resources. The impact of water stress in the different scenarios also depends on relations between individual countries in West Asia and on West Asia’s relations with other regions. About 60 per cent of surface water resources originate from outside the region. In Security First , countries sharing river basins fail to sign conventions and agreements on sharing and management of water resources, including surface and groundwater, or on monitoring their quantity and quality. In Markets First , equitable sharing of surface water resources among such countries might eventually be reached, limiting conflicts and tension. This shift also helps overall development, increases agricultural production and continues, curbing downstream flows, increasing tension in the region and impacting river and marine ecosystems downstream. This situation is exacerbated by cyclical droughts common to the region. In Security First , conflicts and tension increase within the region, as well as with countries outside the region, eventually leading to water wars. These concerns ease in Policy First and Sustainability First as countries negotiate agreements on the equitable sharing of surface water resources. Such steps are taken further in Sustainability First . A total catchment management approach is widely adopted and conventions agreed on sharing and managing groundwater resources to safeguard both quantity and quality. There is also greater cooperation between countries on dam construction, including environmental impact assessments that look at potential impacts on downstream parts of the river and marine ecosystems. Natural capital leaks away West Asia also faces increasing pressures on its biodiversity. Infrastructure expands in all scenarios (see chart), destroying and fragmenting the region's ecosystems. These pressures lead to steady decline in populations of wild species, a growing list of reduces uncertainty in planning. Even so, construction of dams in upstream countries

Source: GLOBIO (see technical annex)

Land area impacted by infrastructure expansion: West Asia (% of total land area)

70

60

50

40

2002

30

20

0 10

An index of 100 is the situation when total land area is undomesticated and all pressures are below the minimum threshold (see technical annex). Reduction in the Natural Capital Index indicates habitat loss and increasing pressure on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. Biodiversity is severely impacted between 2002 and 2032 in all scenarios, but especially under Security First .

Natural Capital Index: West Asia

80

2002

60

40

20

0

West Asia (with Iran and Turkey)

the number of the population affected, and groundwater resources, the principal source of water in this sub-region, are depleted and deteriorate to the extent that they are no longer directly usable. Under the Policy First and Sustainability First scenarios, reductions in irrigated areas in the region, combined with structural changes in the way water is used in industry, lead to reductions in total water withdrawals. Accordingly some river basins drop out of the severe water stress category. In Policy First , the area under water stress is stabilized by adopting strategic water resources management to increase water use efficiency and resource protection. A major policy shift, from ‘supply augmentation’ towards ‘demand management and conservation’ occurs. This shift is achieved through water pricing, awareness and education campaigns, enforcement of legislation and management of marginal water, as well as more efficient allocation of water resources among the competing economic sectors. In Sustainability First , the increase of freshwater made available by desalination technology, wide application of

Source: IMAGE 2.2 (see technical annex)

Key to charts

Markets First

Policy First

Security First

Sustainability First