Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

3 8 5

OUTLOOK 2002–32

When more than 40 per cent of the renewable water resources of a river basin are being withdrawn for human use the river basin is considered to be

Sustainability First , there is slightly more land susceptible to soil degradation than in either the Policy First or Markets First scenarios because more arable land is kept in production. The greatest risk is in a Security First situation, where management is poorest and more marginal land is used. Coping with land and water problems In all scenarios except Security First , some forms of land use planning and effective arable land protection policies are implemented to prevent actual degradation of the extremely scarce cultivable land in the region. As a result, the rate of land degradation and loss slows down and gradually stabilizes. In a Markets First scenario, the available cropland is managed more carefully than in the past, in the interest of protecting agricultural markets. However, population and economic growth more than counteract these efforts (see chart opposite). Land conservation in Policy First and Sustainability First leads to much slower cropland degradation. In addition, some degraded land is restored, leading to substantially lower net rates than in Markets First or Security First . In Sustainability First reductions in population growth and well-researched advances in biotechnology and genetic engineering further offset these pressures. Water stress in West Asia continues to increase as water demands exceed available water resources, owing to population growth and expansion of different development sectors (see charts). In Markets First and Security First , deteriorating water quality and increasing competition between sectors, users or both, hampers food production and leads to conflicts (mainly between the domestic and agricultural sectors), increasing water-related health problems. Water withdrawals are slightly higher in Security First , due to more water-cooled thermal electricity production. Improved irrigation efficiency and minor shifts in irrigated areas (under Markets First only) lead to decreasing water withdrawals for irrigation. In total, water withdrawals increase slightly under both scenarios, leading to an increase in areas with severe water stress and affecting over 200 million people. Demand management and conservation policies are introduced gradually in Markets First as the degree of water scarcity rises in individual countries but there is no strategic water resources planning in a Security First world. In this scenario, water scarcity reaches its highest levels in the Arabian Peninsula, in terms of

Population living in areas with severe water stress: West Asia (%)

100

2002

80

under severe water stress.

60

40

Source: WaterGAP 2.1 (see technical annex)

20

0

Number of people living in areas with severe water stress: West Asia (million persons)

region total 74

Markets First

Mashriq 41

2002

Arabian Peninsula 33

Policy First

Security First

Sustainability First

All the pie charts show total region impacts. The top left pie shows the current situation, the relative size of the others reflects the magnitude of impacts by 2032 under the four scenarios. West Asia is one of the most water stressed regions of the world, with over 80 per cent of its area under severe water stress and over 70 million people (or nearly 90 per cent of the region’s total population) living in these areas. In both sub-regions, the irrigation sector dominates the total water withdrawals, both under current conditions as well as under all four scenarios.

Source: WaterGAP 2.1 (see technical annex)