Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

3 8 4

OUTLOOK 2002–32

Rapid population growth and unplanned expansion lead to even greater growth in built-up area in a Security First world. In Sustainability First and Policy First , more rapid economic expansion is partially offset by a tendency towards compact settlement patterns. Expansion of built-over land in Sustainability First is the smallest among all four scenarios. The land that remains in agriculture is susceptible to water-induced soil degradation (see chart). In Policy First , implementation of a regional food demand management strategy results in more food being imported from other regions. This spares arable land from increased pressure for local food production. In

Implications: West Asia West Asia is characterized by relatively high population growth rates, heavy economic dependence on oil production, fairly severe water stress and pockets of conflict or unrest. Developments in all these respects, along with the promotion of technological advances in areas such as desalination and biotechnology, vary markedly between the four scenarios. As in other regions, these shifts are largely driven by trends and events in the areas of governance and culture, and in relations between nations within and outside the region. Possible outcomes in terms of environmental impacts are considered in more detail below for land, freshwater, biodiversity, urban areas and coastal and marine resources. The repercussions of an extended drought in the region are explored in the box on page 389. Vulnerable land Pressures on West Asia’s limited arable lands are driven by the ever-expanding food demands of a growing population and expansion of other land uses, including urbanization, industrial activities, infrastructure and tourism. In Markets First and Security First scenarios, transfer of arable land to these sectors continues in the absence of effective arable land protection policies. The built-up area expands (see chart) in step with growth in population. Built environment per person continues to grow in Markets First , with sprawling settlement patterns.

Area with high risk of water-induced soil degradation: West Asia (% of total land area)

10

8

Key to charts

6

2002

4

Markets First

2

Policy First

0

West Asia (with Iran and Turkey)

Security First

Water-induced soil degradation continues to be a risk throughout the region.

Source: IMAGE 2.2 (see technical annex)

Sustainability First

Percentage of 2002 cropland severely degraded by 2032: West Asia

Extent of built-up areas: West Asia (% of total land area)

10

7

6

8

5

6

4

3

2002

4

2

2002

2

2002

1

0

0

Arabian Peninsula

total region

Mashriq

Bars represent the percentage of cropland that has become so degraded by 2032 that it is of little value for production. Source: PoleStar (see technical annex)

Source: PoleStar (see technical annex)