Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 9 · Adaptation options

Increased tree growth

Prolonged growing season

Pests, invasive species, insects

Reindeer herding

Degraded pastures

Species and biodiversity loss

Forestry

Agriculture

Conflicts over space

Ground not frozen in winter

Ground too wet for harvest

Technological development

International market conditions

Thawing permafrost

Ocean acidification

Offshore and onshore petroleum

Fisheries

Recruitment

Out migration

Changes in marine species composition

Diminishing sea ice

Sea-level rise

Northward shift in marine species

Neutral

Positive

Negative

Fluctuating

Figure 9.1 Interacting factors and cumulative effects on society from biophysical and socio-economic impacts. Interacting socio-economic drivers of change (orange boxes), effects of climate change impacts on natural systems (white boxes) and the cumulative impacts on a selection of key industries/ sectors (blue boxes). This graphic shows examples of the different impacts and drivers of change and is by no means exhaustive. The purpose of the graphic is to illustrate the complexities, and interactions of cumulative effects (Halvor Dannevig).

effect integrates several economic sectors into European and global trade networks. Examples of interacting changes are many; the reduced global demand for paper for newspapers drives down the price of timber, the market for reindeer meat faces competition from game meat from other regions (such as red deer meat from New Zealand), and the global nature of the fish market directly affects communities in the Barents area (Keskitalo, 2008).This underscores the fact that local conditions are inextricably linked to global forces (e.g. Keskitalo and Southcott, 2015). Across the Barents area, the population in rural settlements is decreasing and conversely is increasing in the regional centers. Jobs in agriculture, forestry and fisheries are in a steady decline. These examples of cumulative effects serve as a point of departure for understanding adaptation actions.The following sections describe the current knowledge and research status on adaptation in the sectors and livelihoods of relevance to the Barents area (see Chapter 2 for a detailed description of the sectors concerned). 9.3.2 Interacting factors and cumulative effects on society Adaptation research in the Barents area has significantly increased knowledge about the impacts and drivers of change, and the complexity of the interacting factors and cumulative effects on society (Figure 9.1). This includes the impact and

in the Barents area where service sector jobs are increasing (e.g. Larsen et al., 2015). Adaptation actions need to take into account all of these interlinked and cumulative changes. On a global scale the opportunities emerging in the Barents area and the Arctic in general are matched by challenges in other countries, where climate change impacts exacerbate already difficult socio-economic conditions creating substantial challenges for human security (Adger et al., 2014; see also Chapter 10 for a discussion of human security). The indirect effects of climate change elsewhere in the world such as influxes of refugees, lower food production due to drought, and a general decline in the world economy may in turn create serious challenges for the Barents area. The global linkages, therefore, serve as a back-drop for the more immediate concerns and possibilities in the Barents area. The region is also a player in a globalized resource system, and world markets and international trade have implications for the economy and livelihoods. Direct regional and local control is circumscribed by national and supranational regulations, which may affect the room to maneuver and the economic resources available at the local level (tax systems, global markets, buyer and production networks as found in global mining and forestry companies) (see Keskitalo and Southcott, 2015). The Nordic countries are either members of the EU or the European Economic Area, and all four countries are members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) which in