Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

9.3.2.1 Agriculture and forestry Climate trends of relevance to agriculture and forestry include a longer growing season, shorter winters and earlier spring, an increase in precipitation in autumn and summer, and changing snow and ice cover (see Table 9.2) (e.g. Øseth, 2010; Council of Oulu Region, 2010; West and Hovelsrud, 2010; Kvalvik et al., 2011; see also Chapter 6). The consequences of these changes include increased yield, damaged harvests, better growth conditions for trees, sheep on pastures earlier in the season, changes in crop variety, increased pests and diseases, and wetter conditions in the fields. Farmers in northern Norway are cautiously optimistic about future climate change impacts on agriculture, but worried about the prospects of new pests and diseases moving north. Fewer farms with more rented land increase transportation costs, and heavier machinery is needed to cover the distances between the fields cultivated. However, heavy machinery can become unusable if conditions become too wet, which can create unexpected challenges in a situation previously considered an opportunity.The frequency of occasions when conditions are too wet to harvest fodder and produce has increased (Kvalvik et al., 2011). Farmers currently see change in agricultural policy and recruitment to the industry as their main concern, which may be exacerbated by climate change (Kvalvik et al., 2011). In forestry, cumulative and interacting effects include invasive species and pest outbreaks, and changing storm patterns may result in the need to review and adapt forest management (see Table 9.2). If change is not too rapid then the forest industry will have time to adjust. Carbon sequestration by forests (i.e. forests acting as a ‘carbon sink’) is considered an opportunity that will increase with the expected increase in forest growth. There is great potential for using more wood for energy and in new materials; more renewable energy is currently produced than used in parts of the Barents area. In multi-use forests, in northern Sweden for example, existing conflicts over land- use between forestry, reindeer husbandry, and environmental protection may be intensified by increased pressures caused by changes in climatic conditions and by economic pressures and structural changes (Keskitalo, 2010b). One reason for this is increasingly unpredictable weather, such as extensive ice cover on pastures that means reindeer must be moved to new areas for grazing (Risvoll and Hovelsrud, 2016), while economic pressures in the forestry sector result in increased logging. Furthermore, forestry may already perceive itself as limited by environmental protection areas (e.g. Keskitalo and Lundmark, 2010). Winter logging in the Barents area is increasingly challenged because the ground may not be frozen (due to warmer winters) and the heavy forestry machinery is designed for use on frozen ground (technology adapted to frozen conditions) (Keskitalo, 2008; Dannevig et al., 2015). In theMurmansk andArkhangelsk Oblasts higher temperatures are likely to increase crop yield and the diversity of cultivated crops (Berdin et al., 2009; Kokorin et al.,2013; Roshydromet,2014).However,while higher temperatures increase tree growth they also result in changes in species composition and increase the risk of pest and insect attacks (Jansson et al., 2015). Under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario the fire-risk season in some parts of Arkhangelsk Oblast is expected to increase by 30 to 49 days by the end of the 21st

responses to change in indigenous and non-indigenous communities and on a wide range of sectors (e.g. Tyler et al., 2007; Hovelsrud and Smit, 2010 and references therein;West and Hovelsrud, 2010; Keskitalo et al., 2011; Dannevig et al., 2015; Jansson et al., 2015). The sectors include, but are not limited to, municipalities, forestry, fisheries, reindeer herding, nature-based tourism, shipping and energy (e.g. Tyler et al., 2007; Keskitalo, 2008; Moen, 2008; Hovelsrud and Smit, 2010; West and Hovelsrud, 2010; Brouder and Lundmark, 2011; Keskitalo et al., 2011; Löf, 2014; Dannevig et al., 2015; Jansson et al., 2015). Understanding the changes that create hazards and risks for communities are of great importance for developing adaptation strategies, and impacts must be seen in relation to demography, outmigration, employment opportunities and access to resources (Hovelsrud and Smit, 2010). Furthermore, changes that may be exacerbated by climate change are filtered through the economic production system and the social and institutional framework conditions (see Table 9.1). Consequences from cumulative impacts affect resource-demand driven by global markets, climate change, pollution, and national, EU and international policies and agreements. It is also likely that tensions and conflicts between competing land use activities and local utilities will increase due to cumulative and interactive consequences from increasingly accelerated land use pressures, climate change, change in biodiversity and changing socio-economic and political drivers. Adapting to interlinked and cumulative changes poses a significant governance challenge, and more effective governance actions and options are needed. Examples from Russia show that areal conflicts can involve governments, industry (e.g. mineral extraction, logging companies,commercial berry picking),land owners,researchers, and reindeer herders (Stammler and Peskov, 2008; Forbes and Kofinas, 2015). Government priorities at different scales and sectors are likely to generate trade-offs with implications for adaptation. For example, in northern Norway, the government’s two-fold objective of preserving biodiversity and maintaining traditional local livelihoods, has implications for sheep farmers’ adaptive capacity as they need to respond to a larger predator population on the pasture lands (Risvoll et al., 2016). A Russian survey of the Barents area shows adaptation measures cover a relatively wide range of issues: flood control, managing inundation risk, emergency rescue, reinforcing coastal infrastructure, application of innovative tools in water resource management under climate change (Archangelsk oblast), diversification of hydro-meteorological monitoring systems to include additional climate change parameters, and increasing the effectiveness of regional environmental and sustainable development policy and thereby strengthening adaptation (Murmansk oblast) (Nikitina, 2013). The cumulative and interlinked changes that trigger adaptation are associated with changing socio-economic and climatic conditions, which produce both risks and opportunities. The impacts are many and they sometimes interact and accumulate in unexpected ways (see Figure 9.1 for examples) with follow-on consequences for governance and understanding of adaptation options.