Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Preface	9
Executive Summary	11
1. Introduction and framing issues	17
1.1 What can be done to prepare for changes in the Arctic?	17
1.2 Need for local and regional perspectives and responses	17
1.3 Outline of the Barents area report	18
1.4 Way forward	19
2. Status of the natural and human environments	21
2.1 Introduction	21
2.2 Natural environment	22
2.2.1 Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems	22
2.2.2 Marine ecosystems	28
2.2.3 Invasive alien species in terrestrial and marine environments	36
2.3 Socio-economic environment and resource use	37
2.3.1 Population and employment	38
2.3.2 Multi-level regulation and planning	41
2.3.3 Physical infrastructure and tourism	42
2.3.4 Energy	44
2.3.5 Mining	45
2.3.6 Multi-use areas: forestry, environmental protection and reindeer husbandry	46
2.3.7 Agriculture	48
2.3.8 Shipping, fisheries and aquaculture	48
2.4 Summary and conclusions	51
Acknowledgments	52
References	52
3. Local and regional perspectives on adaptation	63
3.1 Introduction	63
3.2 Local perspectives on adaptation	64
3.2.1 Community-based studies	64
3.2.2 Indigenous knowledge	64
3.2.3 Stakeholder perspectives	65
3.2.4 Power and participation	66
3.3 Regional perspectives on adaptation	67
3.3.1 Adaptation in the Barents study area	67
3.3.2 Framing issues regionally	68
3.4 Science-policy interface	70
3.5 Summary and concluding comments	70
References	71
4. Physical and socio-economic environment	75
4.1 Introduction	75
4.2 Changes in the atmosphere	77
4.2.1 Warming	77
4.2.2 Precipitation	80
4.2.3 Natural variability	81
4.2.4 Air pollution and black carbon	88
4.3 Changes in the ocean and sea ice	89
4.3.1 Importance of the Barents Sea	89
4.3.2 Past trends and future projections	89
4.3.3 Water temperature and salinity	92
4.3.4 Sea level and surface waves	92
4.3.5 Ocean acidification	93
4.3.6 Icebergs	93
4.4 Changes in terrestrial conditions	94
4.4.1 Snow	94
4.4.2 Permafrost	96
4.4.3 Land ice	97
4.4.4 Fresh water and river ice	98
4.4.5 Avalanches	99
4.5 Socio-economic drivers: global megatrends and multiple exposure	99
4.5.1 Divergent world population trends	100
4.5.2 Urbanization	101
4.5.3 Uneven economic growth	102
4.5.4 Accelerating technological change and worldwide interconnectedness	103
4.5.5 Increasing demand for energy and natural resources	104
4.5.6 A more multipolar world with complex systems of governance	105
4.6 Discussion	106
References	108
Appendix 4.1 Knowledge, information and uncertainties	120
Appendix 4.2	122
5. Future narratives	125
5.1 Introduction	125
5.2 Scenarios as tools for understanding possible futures	126
5.2.1 What are scenarios?	126
5.2.2 Global scenario framework	126
5.2.3 Barents scenario work	127
5.2.4 Lessons learned	129
5.3 Bringing in local and regional voices	130
5.3.1 Narratives as communication: social learning and knowing in action	131
5.3.2 What are narratives and how do they evolve?	131
5.4 Future narratives in the Barents area	133
5.4.1 Workshop results	133
5.4.2 Recurring themes	136
5.4.3 Reflections on workshop outcomes	138
5.5 Summary and discussion	139
5.5.1 Knowledge gaps and ways forward	139
Acknowledgments	140
References	140
6. Impact analysis and consequences of change	143
6.1 Introduction	143
6.2 Impacts on ecosystem and human health	144
6.2.1 Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems	144
6.2.2 Marine and coastal ecosystems	146
6.2.3 Human health	155
6.3 Societal and economic change	156
6.3.1. Primary industries	156
6.3.2 Tourism	161
6.3.3 Energy	162
6.3.4 Mining	165
6.3.5 Shipping and infrastructure	167
6.4 Linkages and cumulative impacts	168
6.4.1 Connecting drivers of change to adaptation actions	168
6.4.2 Methodology for analyzing drivers, impacts, and consequences of change	168
6.4.3 Applying the methodology to the forestry sector	169
6.4.4 Moving forward	171
Acknowledgment	172
References	172
7. Indigenous peoples’ perspectives	183
7.1 Introduction	183
7.2 Trends affecting indigenous peoples	184
7.2.1 Economic change and indigenous societies	186
7.2.2 Governance	188
7.2.3 Climate	193
7.2.4 Technology – far-reaching impacts	195
7.3 Actions for adaptation in indigenous peoples’ societies	195
7.3.1 Modeling and maps	195
7.3.2 Impact assessments	200
7.4 Towards a broader use of traditional knowledge	202
7.4.1 RenGIS: co-learning, co-production, and participatory mapping	204
7.4.2 Supporting indigenous languages	205
7.4.3 Education – new tools for the future	205
7.5 Conclusions	205
Acknowledgments	206
References	206
8. A resilience approach to adaptation actions	211
8.1 Introduction: Árvitmeahttun - (un)predictability in the Arctic	211
8.2 Resilience of social-ecological systems	212
8.2.1 Diverse meanings of resilience	212
8.2.2 Social-ecological systems	213
8.2.3 Co-evolution of social-ecological systems	213
8.2.4 Social side of social-ecological resilience: agency, knowledge and power	214
8.3 ‘Ingredients’ of resilience	215
8.3.1 Assuming change	215
8.3.2 Diversity	215
8.3.3 Knowledge and learning	215
8.3.4 Self-organization	216
8.3.5 Livelihoods	218
8.4 From ‘ingredients’ to indicators	220
8.5 Operationalizing a resilience indicators framework	220
8.6 Indications of resilience in the Barents area	222
8.6.1 Analysis through case studies	222
8.6.2 Way forward for resilience indicators: reflections from the case studies	229
References	229
9. Adaptation options	235
9.1 Introduction	235
9.2 Adaptation as a policy issue	237
9.2.1 Adaptation in major reports: A brief overview	237
9.2.2 Organization of adaptation policies and governance	238
9.3 Examples of adaptation action within the Barents area	240
9.3.1 The Barents area in an international context	240
9.3.2 Interacting factors and cumulative effects on society	241
9.4 Understanding adaptation options	252
9.4.1 Adaptation as a process	252
9.4.2 Adaptation governance	253
9.4.3 Barriers and limits to adaptation	256
9.4.4 Key insights on adaptation options	257
9.5 Science-policy interface and knowledge gaps	258
Acknowledgments	259
References	259
10. Synthesis	269
10.1 Introduction	269
10.1.1 Regional policy commitments	270
10.1.2 Global climate policy commitments: UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement	270
10.1.3 The goals of adaptation	270
10.2 Adaptation in context	272
10.2.1 Social context	275
10.3 What processes are needed to support future adaptation?	277
10.3.1 Adaptation as a social process	277
10.3.2 Mainstreaming adaptation	280
10.3.3 Taking uncertainty to heart	280
10.4 Implications for decision-makers and further research	280
References	281
Acronyms and abbreviations	283

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