Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

Table 6.2 Drivers of change with their actions and directions, impacts and effects, and consequences for the forestry sector over the next 30 to 50 years. Drivers are listed in order of relative importance based on Table 6.1 on the understanding that the relative importance will change over time. The consequences for the forestry industry as a whole (i.e. not the forests themselves) are shown in the final column, with green cells indicating positive change, red cells indicating negative change, and blue cells indicating inconclusive change.

Inputs from Chapter 4 and Chapter 5

Inputs from Chapter 4, 5 and 6

Driver

Actions / Directions

Impacts / Effects

Consequences

• Increased area available for forests and forestry • Increase of forestry for carbon storage • Decreased forestry for biofuel use and increased forestry for carbon storage • Increased biofuel use • Preserving forest and increase in carbon storage

• Decreased fossil fuel use • Increased resource efficiency

Economic and lifestyle changes

• Changing consumption patterns (decreased levels of consumption,

increased use of local and vegetarian food products) • Decreased traveling

• Significant land-use changes (decreased livestock holding and feed production) • Mitigation and carbon capture wherever possible in all sectors, including food, fossil fuel and transport • Decreased fossil fuel use • Increased biofuel use • Increased resource efficiency • Improved machinery (lighter) for harvesting trees • Improved biofuel efficiency • Decreased permafrost regime (treeline moving north) • Earlier greening and plant growth • Longer growing season • Increased number of pests and parasites • Increased freeze-thaw episodes in winter

Policy shifts and institutional changes

• Increased focus on climate targets • Growth in diversification and innovation promoted • Increased level of education and environmental concern

Changes in human development

• Increased forestry (for biofuels and wood) and forest area

• Accelerating technological change • Decreasing distance

Technological changes, breakthroughs

• Increased area and amount of standing forest and timber resources

Climate change and related impacts

• Warming

• Increased damage on trees (insect damage, forest fires) • Decreased seedling survival in winter • Rot of drying wood/timber • Decreased quality (and quantity) of trees/wood • Decreased quality (and quantity) of trees/wood • Decreased grazing pressure • Increased area of standing forest • Increased forestry options

• Increased extreme events (drought, precipitation, heavy snow)

• Increased tree damage (insects, forest fires, rot of drying wood/timber) • Fewer people of working age • Changing economics and social life • Reorganization of industries • Fly-in industries • Decreased use of forest ecosystems as pasture for livestock

Demographic shifts • Population growth, immigration and urbanization in the Nordic countries • Decreased population and no urbanization in Russia • Increased ageing • Decreased rural development

• Increasing demand for energy and natural resources

• Decreased fossil fuel use • Increased biofuel use

• Decreased pollution (black carbon) • Increased area of standing forest, use of forest for biofuel, and protection of forest stands for carbon capture

Changes and trends in environmental status and natural resources

Cumulative effects and consequences

Overall positive change for forestry with increased forest area, increased biofuel use, and increased timber availability. Depending on policy, management and winter hardiness of species the positive consequences can be larger or smaller

Technological changes, breakthroughs : Labor may be flown in as population in the north becomes increasingly centralized in urban areas, but lower transport costs and emissions do not hinder development of the forestry industry in thenorth.Potential harvest problems during wetter periods of the year may not pose a problem for machinery as technology and infrastructure improves and harvestingmachines become lighter.On the other hand, studies reported in Chapter 9 indicate that agricultural policymay result inmore driving between fields requiring heavy machinery which in turn harms the fields.Although the overall

Policy shifts and institutional changes :An increased focus onclimate targets will lead to an overall pressure to reduce carbon emissions and promote carbon capture that will lead to a decreased use of forests for biofuel andan increaseduse of forests for carbon storage. Changes in human development : Increasing education and environmental awareness around the issue of climate change will lead to increased biofuel use and thus increased demand for biomass from forests, but conversely increased social pressure to preserve and maintain forested lands for carbon storage.