Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 6 · Impact analysis and consequences of change

Table 6.1 Relative importance of the drivers of change in the Barents area for the next 30–50 years as identified by stakeholders and experts and expressed as weighted percentages of participants’ responses. Stakeholder data for Barents area locals are average values based on four local workshops.

Which future changes will affect this region economically, socially and environmentally in the next 30–50 years? Barents area locals Barents area experts Average

Drivers

Economic and lifestyle changes

25

22

23

Policy shifts and institutional changes

22

14

18

Changes in human development

13

21

17

Technological changes, breakthroughs

9

19

14

Climate change (+ impacts)

11

14

12

Demographic shifts

9

7

8

Changes and trends in environmental status and natural resources

11

3

7

into cumulative effects and consequences, can then be applied to other sectors, regardless of scale and context. These analyses of the drivers,impacts,and consequences illustrate what is likely to happen in the absence of adaptation measures. These types of analysis can thus serve as input for subsequent discussion and analyses – analyzing the adaptive capacity of a sector or society to respond to cumulative changes and consequences,what adaptation options are available andwhat adaptationmeasure can be taken to avoid, anticipate and/or deal with these changes and build resilience.Chapter 9 describes four interrelated dimensions that warrant consideration when addressing adaptation options and how they can be turned into adaptationmeasures; adaptation strategies, processes of adaptation, barriers and limits, and governance and tools. Chapter 8 discusses resilience decision- making in terms of building information about the drivers, impacts, and consequences of change. To reiterate, the analysis of drivers, impacts, and consequences in this section does not intend to be an exact presentation of what will happen,but rather a way of thinking that can help better informadaptation actions, building of resilience and other forms of related decision-making on an ongoing basis. This section uses the forestry sector to provide an example of how the matrix analysis described in the previous section would be applied.The outcome of this step-by-step approach is presented the form of a table (Table 6.2) and in narrative form. Economic and lifestyle changes :As the agricultural sector moves towards more productive crops, and lifestyles and diets move towards more vegetarian and less climate impacting systems, there will be more land available for food production, but in the north especially more land for forest.The market for products, especially forest pulp, energy, timber and carbon storage will increase,and be directed to growing urban centers in the region, with their increased needs for building materials and energy, but also to the national and international market. The latter will especially build on energy, but also on timber and carbon storage and be facilitated by the sea routes opening up for easier timber transport out of the region. 6.4.3 Applying the methodology to the forestry sector

An advantage of this weighted list of drivers is that it includes input fromboth local actors and scientific experts, and that they cover the whole Barents area.A disadvantage of this list is that it is fairly unspecific for any one sector, as the average is based on assessments in different locations, with different settings and a (different) variety of sectors. Depending on the intended use, a tailored or sector-specific analysis of drivers and weights could be better, but as a general example of the approach the drivers identified in Table 6.1 and their relative weights will suffice. Table 6.1 thus forms the basis of an analysis of consequences, where a consequence can be described as the tangible outcome of an impact or an interaction of multiple impacts that results in a change in condition of a given element of interest.When assessing the consequences of change for a sector, one approach is to use a matrix analyzing the driver-impact-consequence chain step- by-step before estimating the cumulative consequences; that is, starting with a high-level driver (e.g.climate change) and aspects of that driver and its direction (e.g.temperature,increasing),their impacts and effects (e.g.increased growing season),and arriving at the consequences (increased forest area). Another example would be the trends toward decreased levels of consumption and increased use of local and vegetarian food products (drivers) leading to decreased fossil fuel use,increased resource efficiency, and land-use changes from decreased livestock holding and feed production (impacts), resulting in increased area available for forests and forestry (consequence). This approach enables visualization and disaggregation of the overall potential future for a sector into its components. The linkages and cumulative impacts from this list of drivers across the Barents area are many and complex. Chapter 9 highlights that one size does not fit all when it comes to understanding the process of adaptation.The chapter highlights that the contexts (sector, community, locality, etc.) will require specific measures depending on a range of factors such as the level of impact, available economic and human resources, and access to knowledge, technology and institutions. It is therefore not feasible to undertake a full-scale analysis for the whole Barents area in this section. For the purpose of demonstrating thismethodology,the first step is to examine one key sector in the Barents area – forestry.This approach of disaggregating themain drivers, impacts and consequences and then recombining these