Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 4 · Physical and socio-economic environment

stage of demographic transition than the majority population, and have high rates of fertility. In contrast, fertility rates in the Nordic countries have decreased since the 1970s and are now similarly low in rural and urban areas. Future development of the population in the Barents area will therefore be largely driven by migration rather than fertility. General ageing of the populations implies an increasing dependency ratio. There will be relatively fewer people of working age to support the youngest and oldest parts of the population. The age composition of the population and the ability to integrate immigrants will thus have large consequences for the economy, government expenditure and many aspects of social life. 4.5.2 Urbanization Globally, there are migration flows between countries and continents, but the largest movements take place within each country. Since 1950, there has been a major shift as people have moved from the countryside to urban areas to seek employment, education, and better life chances. Today, more than half the global population is urban, and by 2050 two-thirds are expected to live in cities and towns (UNDESA, 2015b). By 2030, the world is projected to have 41 mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants. The fastest-growing urban agglomerations are located in Asia and Africa. In the four countries of the Barents area, a large proportion of the population already lives in urban areas. In 2014, the share was 86% in Sweden, 84% in Finland, 80% in Norway, and 74% in the Russian Federation (UNDESA, 2015b). By 2050, these shares are projected to be higher. The urbanization process in the Nordic countries is no longer based on a large number of people moving from rural to urban areas (Svanström, 2015). Rural areas are still losing young people, especially women, but due to lower fertility rates and an ageing population there are no large cohorts of young people in the rural areas anymore. However, looking behind the net figures, it is clear that people are moving in both directions. Many are now moving out of the biggest cities and settling in the peri-urban areas. They live in smaller communities and commute to work in urban centers. Urban growth is mainly an effect of the long-term inflow of young people over several decades, which means urban areas on average have a younger population and more births than rural areas. The urban centers also attract more immigrants. Thus, the rural areas are not drained and depopulated on a massive scale. Instead, the population is slowly ageing and thinning out. The challenges associated with a declining number of working-age people are therefore particularly salient in rural areas, where the maintenance of infrastructure, health and social services will become more challenging. Settlement patterns in the Barents area reflect the economic base and the historical modes of development.They comprise dispersed settlements, based on local and decentralized harvesting of natural resources; company towns, centered around large-scale companies that are the major local employers; and diversified cities, which are centers of public services, trade, and transport hubs.Demographic development and shifts in settlement structure reflect a number of factors,

present to 9.7 billion by 2050 (UNDESA, 2015a). By 2100, the medium projection is 11.2 billion, which is slightly higher than earlier estimates. Growth will be very unevenly distributed; more than 90% of world population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in developing countries in Africa and Asia. This may exacerbate existing problems of poverty, inequality, and competition for resources, and thus trigger social unrest andmigration.Due to declining fertility, the world population is currently growing more slowly than in the recent past.At the same time, life expectancy at birth is increasing.All over the world the population is therefore ageing. Europe today has the oldest population, with a median age of 42 years, while the world average is 29.6 years.The fertility rate is now below the replacement rate in all European countries and in the medium UN projection, Europe will have a smaller population in 2050 than in 2015.Deaths are estimated to exceed births by 63 million, but this reduction will be partly offset by international migration. Europe has net immigration, and in recent years some countries have received a large number of refugees and asylum seekers. In the UN projections, Sweden will see its population grow from 9.8 million at present to 11.9 million in 2050. Similarly, the population of Norway will grow from 5.2 million to 6.7 million. However, population growth in Finland will be lower, from 5.5 million to 5.8 million, while population in the Russian Federation will fall from around 143.5 million at present to 128.6 million in 2050. Although fertility and life expectancy are projected to increase in all four countries, levels are lower in Russia than the Nordic countries. The main uncertainty factor is future migration. Among the Nordic countries, Sweden has received many immigrants and the latest forecasts from Statistics Sweden suggest the Swedish population will reach 12 million by 2040 (Statistics Sweden, 2015). The immigrant population will account for a large share of the population growth (Raneke, 2015). Rosstat, the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, has also produced three population projections to 2051, based on different migration assumptions (Rosstat, 2015).The medium scenario, taking into account socio-economic programs that are already underway, suggests population will remain at the current level. In the low projection, with a continuation of current trends, population will shrink by 20% over the next 35 years, and in the high projection population will increase by 15%. In the latter scenario it is assumed that annual immigration will increase rapidly from about 270,000 people at present, to half a million by 2022, and then to 550,000 after 2030. Although much evidence suggests the Russian Federation is unlikely to receive such a high inflow of migrants (Aleksashenko, 2015), future immigration policies will be important in all four countries. The Barents area, as defined in this assessment, covers a vast geographic area but contains a relatively small proportion of the total population of each of the four constituent countries.The northernmost parts of Sweden,Norway and Finland have 5.2%, 9.2% and 12.1% of the national populations, respectively, while Northwest Russia, including the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (AO) has less than 3% of the total Russian population. These shares have been decreasing over recent decades. In Russia, several of the indigenous populations are at an earlier