Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

Population, billions

GDP, USD 2005 trillion

500

10

400

8

300

6

200

4

100

2

n=930

n=1014

0

0

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Global average temperature, °C

Primary energy, thousand EJ/y

5

1.2

4

1.0

3

0.8

0.6

2

0.4

1

0.2

n=524

n=1014

0

0

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Concentration in 2100, ppm CO 2 equivalents

430-480

480-580

>1000

580-720

720-1000

Figure 4.17 Key global drivers in the ~1200 scenarios assessed during the latest IPCC assessment. To enhance clarity, only the median is shown within each scenario category. The dotted lines at 2030 and 2080 are to help highlight the increase in uncertainty with time horizon. The number of scenarios used to generate each plot is shown at the bottom right. Based on the IPCC scenario database (Krey et al., 2014).

parts of the Arctic is rarely addressed. This gap in knowledge for the Barents area is considered in the following sections. These outline six megatrends and examine how they may affect the Barents area over the mid- to long term. Although most projections extend to 2050, it should be noted that socio- economic projections extending beyond the next 15 to 25 years are usually highly uncertain. 4.5.1 Divergent world population trends Population is an important driver at the global level and demography is easier to forecast than most other factors. The reason is that the number of people born in a certain period cannot increase during the lifetime of that generation. Population growth is linked to births, deaths and migrations rates, which normally change slowly. As countries develop economically, they tend go through a demographic transition from a fairly stable population, followed by rapid population growth, before reaching a stable or stagnant population. The main element that can modify this demographic transition is net migration. According to the latest UN projections, world population will continue to grow from around 7.3 billion at

and assume that existing patterns will continue. Knowledge is limited however, and the only certainty is that unpredictable events with major global consequence are inevitable. For example, neither the collapse of the Soviet Union nor the terrorist attacks on theWorld Trade Centre in September 2001 could be predicted but both have changed the course of history. This illustrates the importance of identifying those drivers and megatrends that could have significant impacts on economies and societies worldwide. A number of studies have attempted to identify these drivers and megatrends, also with a view to the Arctic (Arctic Council, 2009; EEA, 2011, 2015; Nordic Council of Ministers, 2011; Smith, 2011; FNI and DNV, 2012; Lloyd’s, 2012; Gore, 2013; Andrew, 2014; Stępień et al., 2015; Haavisto et al., 2016; see also Arbo et al., 2013).However, because most of these studies took place during a period of high commodity prices and before the Russian annexation of Crimea and the introduction of sanctions, they are already out-of-date in several respects. This highlights the uncertainty associated with all projections of future conditions. Moreover, the studies generally address overall trends, but how these trends manifest within different