Zambezi River Basin

Conclusions and Recommendations

Key Findings

• The population in the Zambezi River Basin is increasing, and is expected to reach 51 million by 2025. • Some 7.5 million people live in urban centres in the Zambezi basin. There has been rapid expansion of Lilongwe and Harare between 1990 and 2011. • There are some 30 ethnic groups and related cultures in the Zambezi River Basin. The cultures in the Zambezi basin include the Lunda, Luchaze and Quioca in Angola; the Tswana in Chobe, Botswana; the Chewa, Tumbuka, Yao, Ngoni, Nyanja and Sena cultures in Malawi; the Sena in Mozambique; the Bemba, Tonga, Lozi, Luyana, Lunda, Bunda and Chewa/Nyanja in Zambia; and Shona, Ndebele and Tonga cultures in Zimbabwe, as well as Nambya in Zimbabwe and Namibia. • Land available per capita is projected to shrink from 4.16 ha/person in 1998 to 2.72 ha/person by 2025. • The Basin is endowed with numerous natural resources including lakes, wetlands, forests and wildlife, as well as land and minerals. • Climate change coupled with human pressure on resources is resulting in significant change of the Zambezi basin’s environment. • The location, extent and significance of adverse impacts occurring through changes in land use are closely related to human population pressure on the land. • Seventy-five per cent of the land area in the Basin is forest and bush while13 per cent of the land area is cropland, mostly rain fed. Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi have together 86 per cent of the estimated 5.2 million ha of the cultivated area in the basin. • Use of fertilizers and agro-chemicals in the basin is contributing to the eutrophication of water bodies. • There has been significant loss of forests in the last 20 years, with Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Mozambique recording the highest loss of 403 350 ha, 327 000 ha and 217 800 ha respectively. Malawi and Namibia recorded the least loss of 32 950 ha and 73 600 ha respectively. • The Basin is highly prone to overexploitation and unsustainable development.

• Biodiversity of Mulanje Mountain, particularly the rare and endemic Mulanje cedar ( Widdringtonia whiteii ), is under threat from deforestation and encroachment, poaching, forest fires and invasive alien species. Mulanje Mountain is a Global Biosphere Reserve under UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere Programme. Zimbabwe is an important economic asset to the two countries through tourism, but is under some threat from upsteam dams and other developments that pollute the river. Victoria Falls is a UNESCOWorld Heritage Site. • Five countries in the basin have reserved more than 10 per cent of their total land area for the conservation of wildlife, with Zambia and Tanzania having 31 per cent and 28 per cent of their total land area set aside as protected areas, respectively. • Forty hydropower schemes with a total potential of close to 13 500 MW have been identified, with more than half of these in Mozambique. The estimated hydropower potential of the Zambezi River is 20 000 MW of which only 4 684 MW has been developed. • The increase in carbon dioxide per capita is concurrent with a rise in temperatures, which has in turn altered weather patterns as evidenced by shifting seasons within the basin, droughts and floods, and increased incidence of pests and diseases such as malaria. • Regular fire outbreaks, which peak from August to November, are a major emitter of carbon dioxide. In Botswana, about 20 to 30 per cent of the country was burnt between 1996 and 1997. In the Namibian Caprivi and Kavango regions, about 25 to 30 per cent of the area burns every year. • Climate change has impacted on the Basin’s water resources, such as in Lake Liambezi in Namibia, which has experienced shrinking over the years. A major positive development is the flowing again of Savuti river, which had been dry for long periods of time. • The world famous Victoria Falls on the Zambezi River between Zambia and • About 74 per cent of the total energy needs of the eight Basin states come from biomass.

• Deforestation is the most significant factor in climate change in the Zambezi basin.

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