Reindeer Husbandry and Barents 2030

REINDEER HUSBANDRY SCENARIOS IN THIS SECTION, WE PRESENT TWO EXISTING SCENARIO MODELS FOR THE BARENTS REGION, NAMELY THE BARLINDHAUG SCENARIOS AND THE GLOBIO METHODOLOGY, AND COMBINE THE TWO TO CREATE UPDATED SCENARIOS, WHICH WE ANALYZE FROM A REINDEER HUSBANDRY PERSPECTIVE. WE ALSO DISCUSS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE REGION.

THE BARLINDHAUG SCENARIOS

The Barlindhaug report (Barlindhaug 2005) argues that the Barents Sea is about to become a new petro- leum region both in Norway and globally, with petro- leum exploration and production gradually expanding from the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. A similar process will take place in Russian waters, beginning with the Shtokman gas field. The report draws on ex- perience from the Snøhvit and Ormen Lange projects to calculate and predict total investment costs and employment effects. The future is divided into three periods; 2006–2012, 2012–2020 and after 2020. For each phase, major new activities and developments are indicated. In the period 2006–2012, the report predicts that the Snøhvit LNG train 1 and 2 will be put into operation, the Goliat oil field and new oil fields in the Petchora Sea will be developed and exploration activity will in- crease. Development will start at Shtokman, and the

Baltic Sea pipeline between Vyborg and Greifswald will be completed (Figure 4a).

In the period 2012–2020, Snøhvit LNG train 1 and 2 will be operated, maintained and modified, and train 3 will be planned. Shtokman LNG 1 and Goliat will also be in production. Plans are made for an exten- sion of the Western Arctic Pipeline from Mid-Norway to Eastern Finnmark, Shtokman LNG 2 and construc- tion of an eastern pipeline to the pipeline in the Baltic Sea. A number of gas processing plants will be built along the Norwegian coast from Eastern Finnmark to Vesterålen. Some of the plants will also have oil terminals and processing facilities (Figure 4b). After 2020, all planned projects will be in operation, includ- ing activity in the disputed area between Norway and Russia and the Eastern Barents Sea, and petroleum activity will expand into the northern part of the Bar- ents Sea (Figure 4c).

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