Mountain Adaptation Outlook Series - Synthesis Report

Past and future warming According to the data presented in the various Outlooks, average annual temperatures have increased across all mountain regions and within all countries. The IPCC’s observation that mountainous regions experienced above-average warming over the 20th century is confirmed by data from several national and regional level observations. Projections for all mountain regions and countries indicate that the warming trend will continue. Even under medium emission scenarios, many mountain regions will be facing unprecedented conditions, where the coldest years will be significantly warmer than the warmest years of today. Under high emission scenarios, all mountain regions are projected to experience between 4-5°C of warming by 2100 (even up to 8 °C in the Western Balkans). Past and future precipitation, including extreme precipitation The pattern of past precipitation change in mountain regionshasnotbeenasconsistentasforpasttemperature patterns. Some mountain countries have across their whole territories become wetter, others drier. Many mountain countries have become both wetter in some places and drier in others. Simply looking at annual These trends are based on data in the Outlook series. There is a universal trend of increasing temperatures; precipitation trends are mixed. However, all regions have experience either shifting seasons or increasing intensity of rainfall over the past few decades.

TROPICAL ANDES

WESTERN BALKANS

CARPATHIANS

SOUTH CAUCASUS

CENTRAL ASIA

HINDU KUSH HIMALAYA EAST AFRICA

PAST AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE

FUTURE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE

PAST AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

FUTURE AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

FUTURE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OF RAINFALL

PAST EVIDENCE OF SHIFTING SEASONALITY AND/OR INTENSITY OF RAINFALL

SUMMARY OF OBSERVED & PROJECTED TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE & CLIMATE FOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS

DIRECTION OF CLIMATE TREND

INCREASE DECREASE MIXED NO CHANGE

Source: GRID-Arendal, Mountain Outlook Series .

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PAST AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE