Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

HIV/AIDS epidemic in most other regions of the world is still low. There have been notable population movements over the past 30 years due to rapid urbanization, international migration and the movement of refugees and displaced persons. The number of people living outside their own countries rose from 84 million in 1975 to an estimated 150 million people at the end of the 20th century (UNDP 1999, UNHCR 2000). The number of refugees rose from 2.7 million in 1972 to a peak of 18.3 million in 1992, and stood at 11.7 million at the end of 1999 (UNHCR 2000). By 2001, an estimated 22 million people ‘of concern’ were numbered among the world’s refugees, returnees and persons displaced within their own countries (UNHCR 2001). The more developed regions are expected to continue being net receivers of international migrants, with an average gain of about two million a year over the next 50 years. Because of low fertility in recipient countries, this migration will have a significant impact on population growth in the developed regions (United Nations Population Division 2001). Economic development The world economy has, on aggregate, expanded considerably over the past three decades, despite significant fluctuations. World gross national product (GNP) more than doubled from approximately US$14 300 billion in 1970 to an estimated US$29 995 billion in 1999 (Costanza and others 1997, World Bank 2001). However, these figures do not include the value of environmental goods and services which are critical to the Earth’s life-support systems, and contribute to human welfare but are outside the market. An estimate of the economic value of these ecosystem services is between US$16 000 billion and US$54 000 billion a year, with an average of US$33 000 billion a year. This estimate should be considered a minimum because of the nature of the uncertainties (Costanza and others 1997). The world economy grew by 3.1 per cent annually in real gross domestic product (GDP) between 1980 and 1990, and 2.5 per cent annually between 1990 and 1998, with annual per capita growth rates of 1.4 and 1.1 per cent respectively (UNCTAD 2000). There has, however, been significant regional variability over this period, with by far the highest growth rates in Asia and the Pacific, which contains more than half the world population. Per capita GDP (in constant

World population (millions) by region, 1972–2000

7 000

Asia and the Pacific Africa

West Asia North America Latin America and the Caribbean Europe

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

World population is currently growing at 77 million a year, with two-thirds of the growth in Asia and the Pacific

Source: compiled from United Nations Population Division 2001

Population Division 2001). Nevertheless, the emergence of HIV/AIDS in the 1970s has depressed life expectancy in the most affected countries, and the disease is now the fourth most common cause of death worldwide. More than 60 million people have been infected with HIV since the 1970s, and 20 million have died. Of the 40 million living with HIV/AIDS worldwide, 70 per cent are in sub-Saharan Africa where it is the leading cause of death (UNAIDS 2001). Compared to Africa, the relative impact of the

Gross domestic product per capita (US$1995/year), 1972–99

35 000

30 000

25 000

20 000

15 000

10 000