Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

US$1995) almost doubled in Northwest Pacific and East Asia during 1972-99, growing by an annual average of 2.4 per cent a year (compiled from World Bank 2001); by contrast, it fell in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite global economic growth, the gap between rich and poor has widened both between developed and developing countries and within countries, particularly in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa (UNDP 2001). Per capita incomes have risen only marginally in most regions, with the exceptions of Europe and North America (see figure on page 34). Currently 3.5 billion people in low-income countries earn less than 20 per cent of the world’s income, while the 1 billion people living in developed countries earn 60 per cent (UN 2000). The ratio between income earned in countries with the richest 20 per cent of the population, compared to the world’s poorest 20 per cent, has also widened — from 30:1 in 1960, to 60:1 in 1990, to 74:1 in 1997 (UNDP 1999). Growth in use of energy (see box) and transport are both indicators of economic development, and both have severe impacts on the environment. Private vehicular transportation has become an entrenched lifestyle choice among those who can afford it. Since the 1970s, about 16 million new vehicles have come onto the world’s roads annually (UNDP, UNEP, World Bank and WRI 1998) and passenger cars account for 15 per cent of total global energy consumption (Jepma and others 1995). Inequalities in income are also reflected in similar disparities in material consumption (see ‘The Ecological Footprint’, page 36). It has been estimated that the richest 20 per cent of the world’s population accounts for 86 per cent of total private consumption expenditure, consumes 58 per cent of the world’s energy, 45 per cent of all meat and fish, 84 per cent of paper, and owns 87 per cent of cars and 74 per cent of telephones. Conversely, the poorest 20 per cent of the world’s population consumes 5 per cent or less of each of these goods and services (UNDP 1998). For many developing countries poverty, unemployment and low productivity are major concerns. In developing countries as a whole, the informal sector provides 37 per cent of employment, and as much as 45 per cent in Africa (UNCHS 2001). In the 1980s, structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) were introduced by the World Bank to correct underlying economic imbalances and improve economic efficiency through reforms. SAPs have had

Trends in global energy production and consumption

Energy is a key to socio-economic development. It is also central to achieving the economic, social and environmental goals of sustainable development. Harnessing energy has dramatically expanded people’s choices, allowing those with access to enjoy unprecedented productivity, mobility and comfort. But the per capita use of electricity illustrates a major energy divide. The OECD annual average of 8 053 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per capita is nearly 100 times greater than in the least developed countries where it is only 83 kWh per capita (UNDP/UNDESA/WEC 2000). The annual growth rate in total energy use between 1972 and 1999 averaged 2 per cent a year but this decreased from 2.8 per cent in the 1970s to 1.5 per cent in the 1980s and 2.1 per cent in the 1990s (IEA 1999). This decrease was due to weak economic performance in the transition economies in Europe in the 1990s, compounded by the global financial crisis of 1997-98 (UNDP/UNDESA/WEC 2000). The human benefits of energy production and consumption frequently have an environmental downside, which may in turn threaten human health and quality of life. Impacts on atmospheric composition, deforestation leading to soil erosion and siltation of water bodies, the disposal of nuclear fuel waste, and occasional catastrophic accidents such as Chernobyl are some of the widely recognized problems. Globally, per capita consumption has changed relatively little over the past 30 years although total consumption grew by some 70 per cent during 1972–99. At the regional level, per capita consumption has fallen in North America, the greatest consumer, and risen most sharply in West Asia. Reducing fossil fuel energy consumption in areas of high consumption, and achieving more balanced per capita consumption within and between countries, are environmental imperatives for the 21st century.

Per capita energy consumption (tonnes oil equivalent/year)

0 2

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Africa Asia and the Pacific Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean North America

West Asia world average

Total energy consumption (million tonnes oil equivalent/year)

5 000

West Asia North America Latin America and the Caribbean Europe

Asia and the Pacific

Africa

4 000

3 000

2 000