City-Level Decoupling-Full Report

5 Decoupling through urban infrastructure

5.1 Infrastructure

urban infrastructure over the next 25 years for all the cities of the world. It estimates that a total of US$41 trillion is required to refurbish the old (in mainly developed country cities) and build new (mainly in the developing country cities) urban infrastructures over the period between 2005 and 2030. 68 Over 50 per cent (US$22.6 trillion) would be required for water systems, US$9 trillion for energy, US$7.8 trillion for road and rail infrastructure, and US$1.6 trillion for air- and sea-ports. 69 The Boston Consulting Group independently arrived at a similar estimate when it argued that US$35–US$40 trillion will need to be invested in infrastructure by 2030. 70 “Sooner or later, the money needed to modernise and expand the world’s urban infrastructure will have to be spent. The demand and need are too great to ignore. The solutions may be applied in a reactive, ad hoc, and ineffective fashion, as they have been in the past, and in that case the price tag will probably be higher than US$40 trillion. After all, infrastructure projects are notorious for cost overruns. But perhaps the money can be spent proactively and innovatively, with a pragmatic hand, a responsive ear, and a visionary eye. The potential payoff is not simply the survival of urban populations, but the next generation of great cities.” 71 Significantly, Booz Allen Hamilton recognises that the grand retooling of the world’s urban infrastructures will mean finding new The report warns that:

investments, economic recovery and green growth

The central role of urban infrastructure is reflected in many of the financial 'rescue packages' that have been introduced since 2007-2008 to mitigate the impacts of the financial crisis. A significant proportion of the publicly financed investments to stimulate a global recovery seem to be targeted at investments to refurbish or extend the ageing urban infrastructures of cities in the developed world, and the under-serviced, over-burdened urban infrastructures of the burgeoning cities in the developing world. While this is reflected in policy intentions such as, for example, US President Obama’s proposed Infrastructure Bank, China’s decision to accelerate what was already a large infrastructure construction programme, and the African Union’s pan-African infrastructure investment programme, and the increasing number of reports from influential consulting firms advocating investment in infrastructure as a major new financial opportunity, 67 the economic, environment and social impact of policies and programmes merits a detailed assessment. The first estimates of what this will cost globally are already being published. The global consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, which depends heavily on world-wide contracts to build infrastructures for its US$4.5 billion turnover, has compiled a detailed estimate of the investment required to meet demand for

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