Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Canadian Arctic

GLOBAL FOOD SCARCITY

“Coping with the short-run challenge of food price volatility is daunting. But the longer-term challenge of avoiding a perpetual food crisis under conditions of global warming is far more serious. History shows that extreme seasonal heat can be detrimental to regional agricultural productivity

to respond to food security issues that are brought about by climate change.

Food: Starting in 2006 and peaking in 2008, food prices around the world soared forcing people in many countries into hunger and causing riots in 30 countries around the globe. While many factors contributed to the crisis, the most significant were extreme weather events in major cereal producing countries and the resulting decline in yields and stocks; speculation in food markets; growth in non- food crops, especially biofuels; and high oil prices (Nellemann et al. 2009). After a century of relatively steady decline, there was a 50–200% increase in selected commodity prices in 2008. Even though world oil prices have since declined sharply, food prices remain higher than where they were at the start of the crisis. It remains to be seen whether 2008 was a momentary crisis or the start of a new trend in food prices although it is widely believed that the era of stable food prices has come to an end. Fuel: Coinciding with and contributing to the food crisis of 2008, was a surge in the cost of fuel. The price of crude oil peaked at US$147 per barrel in July 2008 after which it declined to US$43 in December 2008 (Nellemann et al. 2009). The price of fuel affects fertilizer use, food production, distribution, and transportation, and ultimately, the price of food. It is unreasonable to believe that prices for this non-renewable resource will remain low and indeed many believe that we are entering or have entered into the period of “peak oil”, i.e., a global peak in oil production after which the rate of production enters into a terminal decline. Already subject to higher food and transportation costs than the rest of Canada, the impact of higher fuel costs on isolated northern communities can be expected to be severe. Financial: Since mid-2008, the world has been experiencing an ever-expanding financial crisis of a scale and magnitude not witnessed in generations. The implications of this crisis are not yet fully realized but one of most profound effects on the Canadian economy to date has been on the value of the Canadian dollar. The dollar, driven by high oil prices, reached a modern-day high of US$1.09 November 2007 and remained over or near par with the US dollar until starting a rapid decline in fall 2008. It reached a low of US$0.77 in December 2008 and

and human welfare and to international agricultural markets when policy-makers intervene to secure domestic food needs.”

D.S. Batistti and R.L. Naylor, 2009

The global nature of climate change means that Arctic food security cannot be considered in isolation of the issue elsewhere in the world. Much of the literature on food security focuses on local food production, whether locally grown or harvested, yet for many vulnerable communities imported foods already are an significant part of their diet and likely to become even more so in the future. As climate change impacts agriculture around the world, these communities become even more vulnerable. As example, we can consider world grain reserves, where ten years ago, there was a 150 day reserve of grain in the world (Dyer 2008). By 2007, this has been reduced to less than 57 days (Dyer 2008; Lane 2008) and forecasts for the future show that we are heading for further declines (FAO 2008c). Grain production stalled in the 1990s but the world population continued to grow and as a result, we have literally been eating into the reserves. As world temperatures continue to increase, world grain production will decrease. With an increase of 2°C in temperature, there will be little or no international grain market left; most of the major grain exporters will not have enough grain to export (Dyer 2008). The world had a foretaste of this scenario in 2008 when many rice producing countries severely restricted rice exports to deal with shortages domestically with the end result of spiralling costs and food riots in many countries. This leads to the fact that food security cannot be considered in isolation of other global issues. The year 2008 saw the convergence of three global crises: food, fuel, and financial. While these are not a direct impact of climate change, they will affect the ability of individuals, communities, and nations

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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC