Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Canadian Arctic

as of late March 2009, the Canadian dollar is trading around US$0.80. The effects on food security have been immediate, with the cost of food rising across the country. The Consumer Price Index in Canada rose 1.4% in the 12 months to February 2009, driven largely by increasing food and shelter costs (Statistics Canada 2009). In the 12-month period to February 2009, food prices, the largest factor driving up the CPI, rose 7.4% (Statistics Canada 2009). The FAO has stated that to evaluate the impacts of climate change on food security, “it is not enough to assess the impacts on domestic production in food- insecure countries. One also needs to:

assess climate change impacts on foreign exchange earnings; determine the ability of food-surplus countries to increase their commercial exports of food aid; and, analyse how the incomes of the poor will be affected by climate change,” (FAO 2003). The impacts of climate change on the global food system will be varied and complex. The FAO has identified a number of potential impacts, all of which need to be taken into consideration when developing adaptation strategies for the Canadian Arctic (Table 1). 1. 2. 3.

Table 1. Potential impacts of climate change on food systems and food security (from FAO 2008b)

Food availability

Food accessibility

Food use

Food system stability

Increased food production in major exporting countries would contribute to global food supply but this could be negated by diverting land from food to more valuable cash crops. Reduced production of food crops and livestock products in affected areas. Reduction in global supplies likely to cause market prices to rise. Declines in production. Pressure on grain reserves. Decrease in food exports/increase in food imports. Increased need for food aid. Likely impact on global supplies, trade, and world market prices is not known. Possible decrease in surplus production in flooded agricultural areas. Increased need for emergency distribution of food rations.

Increase in food production would limit price increase on world markets but diversion of productive assets to other cash crops could cause food prices to rise. Impacts on incomes, prices, and affordability uncertain. Changes in preference uncertain.

CO 2 fertilization effects

Risk of ill health from eating food that is spoiled.

Higher cost for storing grain and perishable products.

Increase in global mean temperatures

Preferred food not available or too costly.

Dietary adjustments with different nutritional content.

Greater instability of food supply, food prices, and agriculturally-based incomes.

Gradual changes in precipitation (increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of dry spells) Gradual changes in precipitation (changes in timing, location, and amounts of rain and snowfall) Impacts of increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events

Full-cost pricing for water may cause food prices to rise.

Food safety is compromised by water pollution and damage to stored food.

Greater instability of food supply and food prices.

Possible increase in food prices.

Ability of body to process food reduced due to diseases.

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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC