Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

Box 10.2 The context of global social drivers of change Projecting the future impacts of climate change is challenging, and the difficulties increase exponentially when other human interactions with the environment are included in the projections. Such interactions include harvesting, the direct and indirect impacts of infrastructure and industrial development, the introduction of new species and the spread of new diseases, and pollution (Chapter 6). These interactions are also expected to be influenced by social megatrends, by shifting world views or policy orientations, and by specific policy decisions related to climate mitigation and adaptation. The broader context of societal change includes megatrends that are global in scope and can affect the Barents region through trade and politics, migration, and knowledge exchange and media messaging. Global population trends and their regional implications Global and national population trends do not translate directly to population changes in the Barents area, although regional population trends (see Section 10.2.1) may be affected by global changes. Such impacts are difficult to determine in a long-term perspective, however, and the current refugee crisis highlights the uncertainties associated with how migration patterns may be affected by global politics and conflicts. Climate change is likely to play an increasingly important role in future conflicts (Adger et al., 2014:771-777 and references therein). Migration from conflict areas and from areas of drought may potentially increase the influx of new people to the Barents area (Chapter 4). If immigrants remain in the region, they could slow the current population decline. Global and regional economic development The global economy is expected to continue to grow, driven mainly by the transformation of developing country economies into economies based on industrial or post- industrial modes of production. Moreover, the number of people that can afford resource-demanding lifestyles is growing. The growing global resource demand linked to these shifts can affect the Barents area owing to the importance of energy and mineral resource production in the region’s economy. However, growth rates are likely to vary. The recent slow-down in economic growth in China highlights the risk of short-term fluctuations that are both unpredictable and potentially responsible for cascading effects worldwide. Moreover, the sharp drop in energy and mineral prices in recent years shows how difficult it is to predict future changes in resource markets. In the Barents area, economic growth will depend in the short term on the development of extractive industries affected by market ‘boom and bust’ cycles. Over the long term, economic development in the region will also depend on the diversification of local economies, the ability to attract skilled people, and the capacity for innovation. Global interconnectedness One of the most dramatic changes in global society in recent decades is better information flow and faster communication. Money and ideas now cross the world in microseconds.

Further expansion of information infrastructure is highly likely and will continue to influence the spatial organization of activities and perceptions of place and space. One consequence of increasing global interconnectedness is that activities that can be conducted remotely become less dependent on distance. Examples of services that use web- based applications include medical consultations, library services, education and telephone support. As long as the relevant infrastructure is in place, this could benefit economic development in remote parts of the Barents area. However, because new technologies are enhancing the possibility of managing industrial processes from a distance it cannot be assumed that new industrial developments will automatically mean increased employment opportunities in the region. Remote-control technologies may also be accompanied by fly-in-fly-out workers,making it difficult to predict long-term consequences for local job opportunities. Governance and geopolitics Ideologies play a role in shaping world politics in ways that have hadmajor impacts in the Barents area.The‘IronCurtain’ that for several decades divided the region into East andWest is a case in point, as are various cooperative efforts since the end Cold War, which include the Arctic Council and the Barents regional cooperation (see Chapter 3 for further discussion about their relevance in relation to adaptation action). Long-term trajectories of political developments are difficult to foresee, but some general trends are worth noting. One is that national politics are increasingly interlinked with the development of international governance frameworks that articulate common normative goals. Sustainable development, the commitment to limit the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, and the increasing recognition of indigenous peoples’rights are three examples (see also Section 10.1 and Chapter 7). Others focus on free trade and providing rules for resolving potential conflicts. An example of the latter that is particularly relevant for the Barents area is the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which has been essential for establishing maritime borders between Norway and Russia, and for successfully regulating international maritime activities (e.g. naval, shipping) and marine activities (e.g. fisheries, offshore oil industry) in the region. However, within this overall context of international cooperation, national interests still play a major role. The extent to which conflicting interests within the Barents area can be resolved through peaceful means has a major implication for all aspects of society, including adaptation activities. So far, cooperation continues despite increasing political tension. In the coming decades, global actors from outside the region are likely to play an increasing role, not least through their financial power. Events in other parts of the world may also spill over into the Arctic and influence the regional geopolitical climate, as could developments that are internal to the different countries. In local and regional adaptation action and a longer time perspective, such developments are difficult to foresee.