Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 9 · Adaptation options

contexts. Addressing the wicked problem as a science-policy interface issue requires that the process is salient (information must make sense and be relevant to those that it addresses); that it is credible (the science has credibility among those concerned, whether local fishers or municipal planners); and that it is legitimate (i.e. that the sources of insight and knowledge have authority and grounding, and that affected parties perceive that their interests have been considered) (e.g. Cash et al., 2003; Mitchell et al., 2006). Uncertainty is the norm in planning and strategy development, and perhaps not the greatest cause for concern.The critical issue is identifying and defining adaptation policy goals and gaps in knowledge on how to ensure andmake adaptation processes more manageable. Given the importance of a science-policy interface when addressing adaptation options, there is an urgent need to address knowledge gaps. There is enough knowledge to act on climate change itself (i.e. mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and developing adaptation efforts), but not enough about how climate change will interact with other changing conditions and possibly result in entirely new sets of multiple stressors.This creates a major challenge in designing the best adaptation options for the Barents area. What is currently known from empirical research and observations is merely scratching the surface in terms of the factors and processes driving adaptation options. Adaptation options in the future will be affected by the extent to whichNorway,Sweden and Finlandmaintain the currently high level of healthcare, education and physical infrastructure in areas with increasingly smaller populations due to urbanization. Attractiveness for employment will be highly dependent on access to such services. In the Russian part of the Barents there are knowledge gaps concerning how best to combine research and assessments of climate change risks and impacts with the interests of stakeholder groups, and to incorporate research findings into the sustainable development agendas of federation subjects in the Russian North. A dedicated science-policy interface is needed to ensure the development of databases, information exchange and the development of networks to share the expertise and knowledge about adaptation between the regions of the Russian Arctic. Current major trends such as urbanization and increasing focus on employment in services will also be important for adaptation. In comparison to the significant role of globalization in the region, climate change is likely to play a smaller role in the short term. In the long term, however, and possibly coupled with changes in energy use (‘peak oil’ has now been reached), the consequences of climate change are likely to affect global food security whichmay result in an increased focus on regional food production.This could in turn reverse some of the trends towards reduced agricultural production. However, gaps in knowledge about agricultural crops that can thrive in a warmer climate and cope with long summer nights have already been identified.The iterative exchange needed between science and policy to fully engage adaptation processes and develop options is reflected in the following summary of such gaps. It is clear that changing industrial and sectoral conditions will affect communities in the Barents area, but what the interlinked impacts of changing geopolitical conditions will be are not

here in terms of governance tools. To develop adaptation strategies, activate and facilitate adaptation processes, and to address limits and barriers for adaptation, a broad range of tools is needed. Adaptation options are shaped by the outcome of complex linkages; the potential of such options cannot be understood without taking into account the factors that activate the adaptation processes, the limits and barriers to such measures and the governing potential. The adaptation options may be found in how the policies facilitate or enable processes.Planning under such complexity carries much uncertainty, as is always the case in planning for the future.Added to this is the issue of how to address future trends (see Chapter 10). Societal trends relevant to adaptation include increased urbanization, gender- imbalanced outmigration from smaller communities (women leave, men stay), an increased gap in higher education among people in rural and urban areas,a growing influx of refugees and migrants,global warming and the associated changes inweather with consequences for society such as increased precipitation, thawing permafrost, higher temperatures, seasonal shifts, new species, health problems, and increasing flood risk (see also Chapter 10). Adaptation to challenges andopportunities takes placewithin the context of multiple factors, which means decisions concerning adaptation options must take into account the complex dynamics between local, regional, national and international scales and between interacting and cascading consequences of change.This is challenging because it requires balancing climate science (including natural and social sciences), policy, and governance with local contexts and cultural aspects.Although all societal scales are involved in adaptation it ultimately takes place at the local level, and lack of attention to local concerns has been seen to delay regional and local policy responses. This is because national goals and policy development may not necessarily coincide with local concerns, whether long-term or short-term. The science generated to address adaptation options, whether physical science or social science, has a greater chance of being successful if it is co-produced and combined with local and traditional knowledge. Efforts are now being made to start with user needs when developing tools for adaptation, which includes giving priority to process over products; linking information between producers and users; building connections between actors, disciplines and organizations; seeking institutional stability; and developing design for learning (see also Chapter 10). Adapting to the combined impacts of climatic and other changes is fraught with uncertainty. The adaptation challenge is a classic example of a ‘wicked problem’ (Rittel and Webber, 1973), where finding the optimal policy is not considered possible and collaboration between a range of actors is necessary to find possible solutions. With this in mind this chapter has approached adaptation options in terms of processes in order to capture the essence of that which can be applied to local conditions, compared and learned across science-policy 9.5 Science-policy interface and knowledge gaps