Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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2. Status of the natural and human environments

Coordinating lead authors : Wenche Eide, E. Carina H. Keskitalo, Kit M. Kovacs Lead authors : Randi B. Ingvaldsen, Andrey N. Petrov, Maria Pettersson, Lovisa Solbär

Contributing authors : Natalia Anisimova, Peter Arbo, Dag Avango, Per Axelsson, Rasmus Benestad, Padmini Dalpadado, Andrey Dolgov, Niklas Eklund, Elena Eriksen, Martin Forsius, Anne Kirstine Frie, Antti Hannukkala, John Richard Hansen, Ketil Isaksen, Edda Johannnesen, Lis L. Jørgensen, Hossain Kamrul, Asta Kietäväinen, Tor Knutsen, Oleg Korneev, Dmitry Lajus, Kari Lehtonen, Pavel Ljubin, P. Lyubin, Michal Luszczuk, Dieter Müller, Emma Orlova † , Willy Østreng, Geir Ottersen, Stanislav Patin, Vladimir Pavlov, Örjan Pettersson, Øyvind Ravna, Peder Roberts, Hein Rune Skjoldal, Peter Sköld, Päivi Soppela, Adam Stepien, Olof Stjernström, Petteri Vihervaara, Bob van Oort, Cecilie von Quillfeldt, Paul Warde

2.1 Introduction This chapter provides background information on ‘status and trends’ relevant to human adaptation in the face of climate change, within a geographical area – the Barents study area – as defined during the AACA process.This region includes the areas involved in the political Barents Region cooperation that has existed since 1993,and been extended over time.However,it also extends northward to include the Svalbard and Franz Josef Land archipelagos within the High Arctic, as well as eastward, incorporating the Yamalo-Nenets (Figure 2.1). There is thus both considerable overlap and some differences between the area commonly referred to as the Barents Region and the area treated in this assessment. This geographical region is heavily influenced climatically and economically by its maritime areas, which include part of the Norwegian Sea, the Barents Sea, theWhite Sea and the Pechora and Kara Seas. These ocean areas are bordered to the south by the North Sea, to the west by the Greenland Sea, to the east by the Laptev Sea and to the North by the Arctic Ocean. Landmasses surrounding the northern Baltic Sea are also included within the area of concern for this assessment, but not the Baltic Sea marine environment. The Barents Region is the core area covered in the established socio-economic literature and is thus a major focus in this chapter. Over five million people are resident in this area alone, while the Arctic parts of the broader Barents area are sparsely populated (the entire circumpolar Arctic is thought to include only four million people; see Nordic Council of Ministers, 2015). Not surprisingly given its large size, the area is extremely diverse in terms of its cultural mix. As a part of the European North the area has been settled for a long time, with considerable blending and intermingling of population groups. Inhabitants of the area include Swedes, Finns, Norwegians, Russians, indigenous peoples of Saami, Nenets, and Vepsian origin as well as Kven and TorneValley Finnishminority groups (BEAC, 2016). The area also includes the Fennoscandian countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland) and Russia; areas between which there are large historical differences. All of these areas are currently undergoing change as a result of broader globalization, migration and urbanization trends, which adds to the social complexity. The population is, on average, aging with older people often remaining in the countryside while younger people are moving to the larger urban areas for higher education and employment.This results in challenges for labor supply and maintaining the tax base for healthcare, housing, education and welfare services in rural areas (e.g. Johnsen and Perjo, 2014). Urbanization,“ the process through which society is

Key messages • • The Barents area has significant human, social, infrastructural, and biological resources to draw upon in responding to climate change. The region is rich in natural resources and has a well-developed system of infrastructure and a high standard of living. The Barents area is more densely populated than other Arctic regions, partly owing to its rich, coastal resources (fish and marine mammals) and its long historical development. • • Climate change and globalization are important drivers of change within the region. Both have been occurring for a very long time. Climate change impacts on flora and fauna are already notable and globalization is having strong impacts on local economies, trade patterns and governance. The economy at both local and regional levels is strongly integrated within global flows of resources, people and products. • • The role of local and regional economies and governance within a multi-level governance context needs to be emphasized in the context of regional adaptation to climate change. Themulticultural,highly integrated Barents Region is part of several large states with relatively strong natural resource development, but with large distances to markets.The region is also strongly impacted by international and global changes.Maintaining service and infrastructure is crucial for maintaining the strong economic role and continued attractiveness and competitiveness of the region. • • Invasive alien species are considered one of the major threats to native biodiversity in the Barents area. They are a serious threat to resident species in both terrestrial and marine environments. Climate warming, in combination with globalization and growth in the volume of trade and tourism has provided species of plants, animals, fungi and microorganisms with a means to establish in areas outside their natural range. International cooperation must be a component in management plans to combat invasive species in the Barents area. • • Maintaining the biodiversity of the Barents area is important for ecosystemresilience and related functions. Conservation of rare as well as common species must be a priority when planning for the long-term maintenance of ecosystem functioning. Conservation of Arctic endemic populations in the Barents area is a global stewardship responsibility of the governing states in the region.