Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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1. Introduction and framing issues

Authors : Marianne Kroglund, Tove Lundeberg

To date,most Arctic Council assessments of Arctic change have focused on identifying and describing the science related to specific challenges and ongoing change within a given Arctic system.TheAACAmoves beyond assessing the state of science, and focuses on the question What can be done to prepare for Arctic changes? The project ultimately intends to enable more informed, timely and responsive decision-making in a rapidly changing Arctic – to aid decision-makers to respond to the challenges, while taking judicious advantage of the opportunities, now and in the future. The challenges and opportunities resulting from a rapidly changing Arctic have local, national and regional specificity, and vary depending on climatic,geographic,political and socio- economic conditions. AACA therefore explores three pilot regions; the Barents area, the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region and the Bering/Chukchi/Beaufort region (Figure 1.1). This report presents perspectives from the economically, socially and culturally diverse Barents area. This region is home to a number of indigenous peoples and contains unique ecosystems and biodiversity values. It is rich in renewable and non-renewable resources, which form the base for production in forestry, fisheries, mining, agriculture and the hydrocarbon industry, as well as tourism and local-scale economic activities such as herding, hunting and gathering. Broad socio-economic trends at the global as well as regional scale, will impact all these actors and sectors. The Arctic is warming faster than the global average and this is expected to continue.In theBarents area,as in theArctic as awhole, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events will affect offshore activities,transport and infrastructure.Changes in climate will have direct impacts on snow and ice, as well as on terrestrial, freshwater andmarine ecosystems.In addition to climate change, the region’s ecosystems are also influencedby several other impacts of human activities, such as chemical pollution, invasive species, and increased shipping and industrial developments. The end result is cumulative and cascading impacts on ecosystems and societies in the area. Local communities and indigenous peoples are among the first to face the direct consequences of change in theArctic,owing to their dependence upon,and close relationship with the environment and its resources, not only for food and income but also, especially for indigenous peoples as the basis for their cultural and social identity. Efforts to enhance adaptation, adaptive capacity and resilience are needed in order to lessen undesirable impacts of existing and future consequences of climatic, social and economic change. Furthermore, the earlier the capacity to adapt is integrated into planning and policy decisions, the better equipped society will be to cope with additional changes. 1.2 Need for local and regional perspectives and responses

1.1 What can be done to prepare for changes in the Arctic? The coming decades will see many changes in the Arctic – changes in the economy, population, climate and environment. Factors driving these changes include growth in the world demand and use of energy and mineral resources, industrial and infrastructure development, and changes in demographic patterns and land use.Projected changes in average and extreme temperature and precipitation, warmer oceans, rising sea level and declining snow and ice cover on land and at sea, as well as the changes in social and economic development play an essential role in shaping the future. The implications of these changes require sound scientific knowledge as a basis for developing appropriate and effective policy responses. In 2013,in recognition of the changes occurring in theArctic and the need for Arctic communities and governments to respond to them, the Arctic Council requested the Arctic Monitoring andAssessment Programme (AMAP) to“ produce information to assist local decision-makers and stakeholders in three pilot regions in developing adaptation tools and strategies to better deal with climate change and other pertinent environmental stressors ”. The project Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic (AACA) is the response to this request: an assessment of the key drivers of change, how these drivers are interacting, and how human and natural communities are responding to or could respond to these changes in the future. • • Adaptation to change, and building adaptive capacity and resilience, is a dynamic process. One that is constantly evolving in response to an increasing knowledge base as well as to the actual or expected effects of change. Building shared knowledge and understanding is key. Key messages • • The Barents area is undergoing rapid environmental and societal change. The implications of these changes require sound scientific knowledge as a basis for developing appropriate and effective policy responses.The earlier the capacity to adapt is integrated into planning and policy decisions, the better equipped society will be to cope with additional changes. • • Challenges and opportunities have local and regional specificity. By integrating knowledge from many different fields of expertise, and across regions with large cultural diversity, multiple uses and users of local resources, and ambitious development plans for the future, this report provides a sound basis for informed, timely and responsive decision-making in the Barents area.