Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 6 · Impact analysis and consequences of change

6.3.1.3 Forestry Extension of the treeline to higher latitudes and higher altitudes is projected to occur over the next 100 years in the Barents area under the warming climate (Wolf et al., 2007; Roderfeld et al., 2008; Hickler et al., 2012) (see Section 6.2.1.1).As a result, forest productivity is projected to increase in northern parts of Europe (Kellomäki et al., 2008; Reyer et al., 2014). As an example, forest growth in Finnish Lapland may double by the end of the century compared to the current climate (Figure 6.10). Recent observations of changes in forest growth support these projections.In Finnish Lapland,annual forest growth has shown a significant increase since the early 1960s and about 40% of this increase is attributable to the increase in annual growing degree days, which have increased by over 20% since early 1960s (Kauppi et al., 2014). Increased forest growth will enable sustainable forest management in areas where it is not currently possible. Sustainable forest management in turn allows enhanced timber production for industry (e.g. sawmills and pulp) and renewable energy production. It not only provides new opportunities for timber-based livelihoods further north, but also contributes to climate change mitigation by sequestering carbon in timber (Roderfeld et al., 2008; Lundmark et al., 2014). Timber production can be further improved by silvicultural practices, such as soil preparation, seeding, planting, and fertilization. However, shorter and warmer winters in the future, leading to a shorter period of ground frost, will make harvesting more difficult and more expensive especially in peatlands (see Chapter 9). The extent to which forest damage by pests and diseases is likely to increase under a warming climate is unclear. As is the extent of snow damage,resulting fromwarm spells and increased humidity during winter. Variable temperature, with warm spells and rain-on-snow events, are likely to change the snow structure and create ice layers, affecting winter conditions for tree seedlings. Multiple land use needs in the north, such as tourism, reindeer herding and use of non-wood forest products (berries,mushrooms, game) taking place in the same area as more intensive forestry could result in conflict (see Chapters 2 and 9). To reach the increased forest growth predicted by models, such as that of Kellomäki et al. (2005, 2008), requires active forest management (Chapter 9). Unlike Scandinavia, where for decades timber production has been ensured through intensive forest management based on tree breeding, tree species selection, planting or seeding, and soil preparation, in Russia timber production has mainly relied on the vast forest area. Russia has over 20% of the world’s forests (FAO, 2010), which has in many places made it unnecessary to actively manage forest and still produce the timber required.However,the spatial distribution of goods and services that forests provide are not adequately mapped and communicated among stakeholders to secure sustainable use of Russian forests (Elbakidze et al., 2012). In addition, there are also major problems in timber harvesting due to the poor condition of the road network in Russia, especially the lack of all-season roads.The low-level of

technology used by the logging companies causes low annual yield in timber harvesting (Karvinen et al., 2006). Because there are several knowledge gaps concerning the spatial structure of Russian forestry, it is difficult to predict whether a warming climate will drive a similar increase in forest growth in Russia as predicted for areas of more intensive forest management. Furthermore, a changing climate could aggravate problems posed by poor infrastructure,such as warmer winters degrading the condition of forest roads, which can increase pressure to harvest timber in easily accessible areas. The development of biofuels, changing land use, forests as carbon stores, and change in policy will affect how forests are managed. 6.3.1.4 Ocean fisheries Cod, haddock, saithe, herring, and capelin are the most important fish species in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters. The North East Atlantic cod stock is the world’s single largest cod stock and has had a Total Allowable Catch (TAC) quota of around one million tonnes. Although the agreed TAC was reduced to almost 900,000 tonnes in 2016 and the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has recommended that the cod quota for 2017 be set at 805,000 tonnes (the same as recommended for 2016 12 ), the economic value and contribution to the countries involved (mainly Norway and Russia) is still significant. In terms of biological productivity as a whole, there has been a significant increase in annual net primary production across the Arctic Ocean; of roughly 30% during the period 1998– 2012 (Frey et al., 2015). Productivity was particularly high on interior shelves near the shelf break (and to a lesser extent on inflow shelves), where sea-ice declines are accompanied by enough upwelled nutrients to support production (Arrigo and van Dijken, 2015; Falk-Petersen et al., 2015). A key issue is how the observed and projected rise in temperature will further influence biological productivity. The spawning stock of North East Atlantic cod has been at a very high level for several years (Gradinger, 2015). Rising temperatures and changing patterns of wind and precipitation are likely to lead to changes in the hydrographic properties of the ocean, as well as to changes in vertical stratification and ocean circulation (see also Chapter 4). An increase in biomass may stimulate primary and secondary production for some commercial fish stocks and newmixes of species may become targeted because of an increase in open water during summer (McBride et al., 2014).The key zooplankton species ( Calanus copepods in the Arctic) play a crucial role in Arctic waters. Another species of importance for the higher-level fish stocks in the Barents Sea is capelin. According to Hopkins and Nilssen (1991), capelin is a major forage species in several highly exploited boreal shelf ecosystems, such as those off Newfoundland, Iceland, and in the Barents Sea. Their biological status will affect the future productivity of fishery species and fisheries. There is little evidence that a rise in ocean temperature and other factors caused by climate change have had an adverse impact on these fundamental trophic structures.

12 The Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries commission will agree on a TAC for 2017 at their annual meeting in October 2017. It could be expected that the agreed TAC will be set along the 2016 considerations – that is closer to 900,000 tonnes.