Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 5 · Future narratives

Inari

Pajala

Bodø

Kirovsk

Bodø: Maiken Bjørkan

Inari: Svein D. Mathiesen

Pajala: Dag Avango

Kirovsk: Lyudmila Isaeva

Figure 5.3 Locations of scenario workshops conducted for the Barents area pilot studies.

5.4 Future narratives in the Barents area To obtain a better understanding of future adaptation challenges in the Barents area, three workshops took place aimed at developing locally and regionally relevant narratives of potential futures (Figure 5.3).The methodology took advantage of the newly developed global scenario framework described in Section 5.2 while also including participatory approaches to produce so-called extended SSPs.Themethodology is described in Box 5.2 and by Nilsson et al. (2015). The workshop participants were local and regional actors with various backgrounds, such as planners, public servants, sector representatives, and other experts, including researchers. The workshops took place in Pajala in Norrbotten County of Sweden,Kirovsk in theMurmansk region of Russia,and Bodø in Nordland County of Norway.A similar exercise also took place at a gathering in Inari, Finland, of reindeer herding youth from across the EurasianNorth – Gávnnadeapmi 2015 (subsequently referred to in this chapter as the Gávnnadeapmi workshop). The results are summarized in Section 5.4.1.4. Further details, including more elaborated narratives of potential futures based on the group discussion, are available for Pajala (Nilsson et al., 2015), Kirovsk, and Bodø (van Oort et al., 2015). 5.4.1.1 Pajala workshop Pajala is amunicipality in the TorneValley inNorrbottenCounty, Sweden.Historically,forestry has been the dominant industry but there are now fewer job opportunities in forestry than in the past. Mining is a major issue in discussions about the future: a new mine opened in 2012 but was declared bankrupt in 2014. The municipality includes spring-winter lands for reindeer herding. Themunicipality has 6300 inhabitants spread over more than 80 smaller villages and hamlets. The Pajala workshop participants included roughly equal numbers of researchers and local/ regional participants.The workshop was held in March 2015. The workshop highlighted climate change and power relations between the national and local level as particularly relevant drivers from a local/regional perspective. Participants perceived issues related to international security as the most uncertain, together with the impacts of climate change (Figure 5.4). 5.4.1 Workshop results

The narratives Fossil-fueled Development globally entails increasing investment in industrial development in Pajala,with new job opportunities. Reindeer herding declines.Demands on education are high and people move into the region. Risks relate to security, terrorism, and to competitiveness on the international resource market. Sustainability : With the green road, forestry becomes a major industry in the Pajala region,both as an energy resource (biofuel production) but also to sequester carbon.The social focus shifts towards highly self-sufficient livelihoods, favoring rural areas that can supply locally produced food and energy. The rate of urbanization in the region slows. Knowledge becomes a premium resource as the basis of the green economy, especially in technological innovation and operation. Regional Rivalry : While the global security situation worsens, community life and decision-making in Pajala continues far- removed from such global changes. The state withdraws from

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Figure 5.4 Pajala workshop: results of brainstorming and ‘voting’ in response to the question: What future changes may influence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations? (Nilsson et al., 2015).