Vital Ozone Graphics 3

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THE EFFECTS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL AMENDMENTS AND THEIR PHASE-OUT SCHEDULES EFFECTS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL AMENDMENT AND THEIR PHASE-OUT SCHEDULES

protocol achievements

The Montreal Protocol has achieved universal partici- pation by all states in the world, the number of partici- pating states is 197, an achievement unprecedented by any other treaty. Without the Protocol, it is estimat- ed that by the year 2050 ozone depletion would have risen to at least 50% in the northern hemisphere’s mid latitudes and 70% in the southern mid latitudes, about 10 times worse than current levels. Global observations have verified that levels of key ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere are going down and it is believed that if Protocol’s pro- visions continue to be implemented the ozone layer should return to pre-1980 levels by 2050 to 2075. The Montreal Protocol is estimated to have prevented: 19 million cases of non-melanoma cancer 1.5 million cases of melanoma cancer 130 million cases of eye cataracts The United States alone estimates that efforts to protect the ozone layer will produce an estimated US$ 4 200 million million (trillion) health benefit for 1990–2165. Ninety-eight per cent of almost 100 ozone depleting substances controlled have been phased out collec- tively. What remains, however, is still a challenge to eliminate. During the phase-out process many coun- tries have met their phase-out targets well before the allotted deadline. At the end of 2010 the remaining phase-out was 45,000 ODP tonnes of annual consumption of which 39,000 ODP tonnes in Article 5 countries. • • • • With the assistance of the Multilateral Fund, develop- ing countries have through 2011 phased-out about 257,195 ODP tonnes of consumption and 192,150 of production of ozone depleting substances from projects approved. All developing countries achieved the 1st January 2010 phase-out target for CFCs and halons. The Protocol has also yielded substantial climate benefits. Because many ozone destroyers also con- tribute to global warming, cutbacks have resulted in a reduction in global warming gases of more than 20 thousand million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents com- pared to business as usual. These reductions make the Montreal Protocol one of the world’s prime con- tributors to the fight against global warming. • The remaining phase-out of ODS in non-Article 5 countries is mostly HCFCs and methyl bromide.

Thousand parts per trillion Predicted abundance

15

Effective stratospheric chlorine *

Montreal 1987

10

No protocol

London 1990

5

Copenhagen 1992

Beijing 1999

Zero emissions

0

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

* Chlorine and bromine are the molecules responsible for ozone depletion. “Effective chlorine” is a way to measure the destructive potential of all ODS gases emitted in the stratosphere.

Cases per million people per year

500

No protocol

Montreal 1987

400

Excess skin cancer cases

London 1990

300

200

Copenhagen 1992

100

0

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Source: Twenty Questions and Answers about the Ozone Layer: 2006 Update , Lead Author: D.W. Fahey, Panel Review Meeting for the 2006 ozone assessment.

them out completely in developed countries by 1994, be- cause industry stepped up to meet the challenges pre- sented by the phase-out. The successes and lessons of the Montreal Protocol are instructive in the context of global climate change discus- sions. A clear lesson is that a multilateral agreement with strong, science-based and legally binding limits is essen- tial. Faced with bright-line goals governments and indus- tries can adapt, and, history shows, far more readily than might be initially anticipated or argued. Equally important are provisions that create incentives for compliance, fund- ing for less developed countries and a sense of common commitment and equity.