Vital GEO Graphics

Scenarios for the Future

In general, ‘Markets First‘ and ‘Security First’ have the worst impacts across a wide range of measures, including anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Sustainability First’ comes out best across a number of indicators. Even here, climate change continues to be a persistent problem and it is not possible to avoid potentially significant warming and sea level rise. Yet under the ‘Sustainability First’ scenario, there is hope. While achieving environmental and human well-being goals is a complex business, investing in environmental and social sustainability does not impair economic development. Integrating policies at all levels and across all sectors and time is a key step along the way.

In the face of climate change and other challenges to the environment, GEO-4 analyses four scenarios, which could potentially develop over future years, depending on decisions taken today. Notwithstanding different carbon emission path- ways all scenarios show a distinct increase in CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and an increase in the global mean temperature, ranging from about 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels in 2050 in ‘Sus- tainability First’ to about 2.2°C in ‘Markets First’.

D ownload G raphic 2

The ‘Markets First’ scenario has the private sector, with active government support, pursuing maximum economic

The ‘Policy First’ scenario has government, with active private and civil sector support, initiating and implementing policies to improve the environment and human well-being while still emphasizing economic development.

growth as the best path to improve the environment and human well-being.

Markets First

Policy First

Under the ‘Security First’ scenario, government and the private sector compete for control in efforts to

In the ‘Sustainability First’ scenario, government, civil

Security First

Sustainability First

society and the private sector work together to improve the environment and human well-being, with a strong

improve, or at least maintain, human well-being for mainly the rich and powerful in society.

emphasis on equity.

18 V I TAL GEO GRAPH I CS