Vital GEO Graphics

Being Vulnerable to Climate Change Every region of the world will feel the effects of changes in the global climate. But it is the poor or vulnerable who will suffer most. Poor people in tropi- cal countries will be particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, such as water shortages, declining crop yields and disease. Sea level rise will impact millions of people and major economic centres in coastal areas. Both ecosystems and human well-being are very vulnerable. Coasts and rapidly growing coastal settlements and infrastructure in countries such as Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar and Thailand are at risk from any increase in coastal flooding and erosion due to sea level rise. Impacts on coastal regions might also include the degradation of wetlands and coastal lowlands. In this connection the

South Pacific island states are extremely vulnerable to climate change. In a number of islands vital infrastruc- ture and major concentrations of settlements are very likely to be at risk. In some extreme cases, migration and resettlement outside national boundaries might have to be considered. In addition, climate change is projected to exacerbate health problems, such as heat-related illness, cholera, dengue fever and biotoxin poisoning, placing additional stress on the already overextended health systems of most small island states. Sea levels have been rising at a rate of about 3 mm/year since 1993, compared to less than 2 mm/year over the previous century. Projections of the sea level rise vary, however the majority of the impact will be post - 2100.

Time scales and sea level rise

Magnitude of response

Sea level rise due to ice melting: several millennia

Sea level rise due to thermal expansion: centuries to millennia

CO 2 emissions peak: 0–100 years

Temperature stabilization: a few centuries

Note: Even if CO 2 emissions decline over a period of a couple of centuries, sea level rise will continue for several centuries to millennia.

CO 2 stabilization: 100–300 years

CO 2 emissions

Today

Source: IPCC 2001a

Time taken to reach equilibrium

D ownload G raphic 2

100 years

1 000 years

Polar bears depend on sea ice for hunting, and use ice corridors to move from one area to another. Credit: Norwegian Polar Institute

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