Vital Caspian Graphics - Challenges Beyond Caviar

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Unpredictable risks

The need for multilateral solutions

Allowance must also be made for unpredictable risk factors. Over and above conflicting interests, some scenarios suggest that drilling for oil and gas could seriously affect the sea level and, worse, trig- ger earthquakes in this seismically active region. Furthermore, however clean modern oil produc- tion may be, it involves the risk of accidents caus- ing serious pollution, typically oil spills during transportation. Nor can it completely avoid con- tinuous emissions during operation. Pollution pays no attention to borders, and pollutants carried over large distances by tributaries aggravate already acute local pollution downstream. Environmental pollution has transboundary effects that need to be tackled multilaterally. At another level, although scientific models of the ef- fects of rising temperatures are improving, it is not yet possible to predict exactly what will happen when nature adapts to changing climatic conditions.

Ongoing disputes and disagreements over the man- agement of natural resources shared by two or more states can deepen divides and lead to hostilities. But common problems regarding the use of natural re- sources may also bring people together in a posi- tive way. Communities and nations can build mu- tual confidence through joint efforts to improve the state and management of nature. Environmental cooperation can be an important way of preventing conflicts and promoting peace between commu- nities. Furthermore the environment is a suitable topic to focus people’s attention, in particular when they are personally affected. Raising people’s aware- ness of the stakes may be a way of promoting more active participation in political life, and, ultimately democracy and shared economic prosperity. By signing and ratifying the Framework Conven- tion on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea (Tehran Convention) the sig- natories – all five bordering states– signalled that they are willing to search for common strategies to protect the Caspian environment. Having agreed in principle on common action towards the control of activities impacting the environment they made a step towards stability in the region.