Vital Caspian Graphics 2

Opportunities, Aspirations and Challenges Vital Caspian Graphics 2

Second edition

Editors Rucevska, Ieva (GRID-Arendal), Simonett, Otto (Zoï Environment Network) Cartography Original cartography by Philippe Rekacewicz (leMonde Diplomatique) assisted by LauraMargueritte andCécile Marin, later updated by Riccardo Pravettoni (GRID-Arendal), Novikov, Viktor (Zoï Environment Network) Photos Effendi, Rena (Baku), Teshaieva, Mila (Berlin) Cover Design Libert, Maria (Zoï Environment Network) Layout Pitens, Janis Special thanks to Chiarandini, Sergio (Agip KCO), Ghaffarzadeh, Hamidreza (CASPECO Project), Goodman, Simon (Caspian International Seal Survey Institute, of Integrative &Comparative Biology), Kwitsinskaia, Elena (interim Secretariat of the Tehran Convention at UNEP Regional Office for Europe), Mitrofanov , Igor (McGill University), Nixdorf, Daniel (interim Secretariat of the Tehran Convention at UNEP Regional Office for Europe), Radvanyi , Jean (International Institute for Oriental Languages and Civilisations), Savelli, Heidi (Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities, UNEP), Schlingemann, Frits (interim Secretariat of the Tehran Convention) English copyediting Lutz, Steven (GRID-Arendal), Riviere, Emmanuelle, Hughes, Geoff (Zoï Environment Network)

The Geneva-based Zoï Environment network is a new answer to some stub- born old questions. An international non- profit organization, Zoï’s mission is to reveal, explain and communicate connec- tions between the environment and society. www.zoinet.org GRID-Arendal is an environmental infor- mation centre located in Southern Norway. GRID-Arendal’s mission is to provide envi- ronmental information, communications and capacity building services for information management and assessment. The centre’s core focus is to facilitate the free access and exchange of information to support deci- sion making and secure a sustainable future. www.grida.no

For the purposes of this publication, the names Iran and Russia have been used to refer to the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation, respectively. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not nec- essarily reflect those of Zoï Environment Network and GRID-Arendal. The pres- entations and designations employed concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area within its author- ity, or delineation of its territories and boundaries, do not reflect the opinion of Zoï Environment Network and GRID- Arendal Published Environment Network andGRID-Arendal with support from the European Union and the United Nations Environment Programme Copyright © 2011 Zoï Environment Network and GRID-Arendal by Zoï

All rights reserved.

ISBN: 978-82-7701-084-7

Printed by Imprimerie Villière in F-74160 Beaumont, France on chlorine-free, recycled paper with 100% plant-based ink.

We promote environmentally sound practices globally and in our own activities. This publication is printed on ecological paper. Our distribution policies aim to reduce our carbon footprint.

2

Petrozavodsk

LADOGA LAKE

ONEGA LAKE

Contents

Saint Petersburg

Syktyvkar

Kotlas

VOLGA-BALTIC CANAL

Berezmki

Vologda

Rybinsk

Kudymkar

a

m

a

K

Kirov

V

Iaroslavl

V

o

o l

g

Perm

a

Tver

l g

Nijni-Taghil

a

Ivanovo

MOSCOW-VOLGA CANAL

Ijevsk

Ioshkar-Ola

a

Nijni-Novgorod

Yekaterinburg

Moscow

m

Smolensk

a

K

V

o

l g

a

Kazan

Riazan

Tula

Cheliabinsk

Ufa

a

Briansk

RUSSIA

l g

Saransk

o

V

Ulianovsk

Orel

Penza

Magnitogorsk

Samara

Syzran

Tambov

Kursk

Voronezh

D o n

Orenburg

Bielgorod

Saratov

Kharkyv

Orsk

Aktobe

D

n

o

a

VOLGA-DON CANAL

g

o l

U

KAZAKHSTAN

r a l

UKRAINE

V

Volgograd

Donetsk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mariupol

Rostov

A sea of opportunities, aspirations and challenges

10

V

o l

g

D

n

o

a

a

b

AZOV SEA

m

E

Aralsk

Atyrau

Elista

Astrakhan

Fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea

20

Krasnodar

Novorossiisk

Stavropol

ARAL SEA

Big projects, big consequences

30

Karalkapakia

BLACK SEA

Groznyi Vladikavkaz

k

e

Sukhumi

Aktau

r

e

UZBEKISTAN

T

Makhachkala

Poti

Tskhinvali

The marks of human activity

36

Nukus

Daghestan

GEORGIA

Batumi

Derbent

Tbilisi

Dashoguz

CASPIAN SEA

Trabzon

K

u r

Urgench

a

KARA BOGAZ GOL

ARMENIA

Sumgait

Changing population profile

52

Yerevan

AZERBAIJAN

Erzurum

K

u r

TURKEY

a

Turkmenbashi

Baku

Nakhichevan NAKHICHEVAN (AZER.)

TURKMENISTAN

Khazar

Balkanabat

KARA-KUM CANAL

s

a k

r

A

Ecosystems paying the price

57

Gyzyl Arbad

Tabriz

Ashgabad

Mardin

A

t

r r

e

k

Gasan Kuli

SYRIA

Rasht

d

Bender

u

Ramsar

R

Environment and security – a fragile balance

67

Mossul

Babol

i d

Gorgan

a f

S

Qazvin

Sari

Mashad

Kirkuk

Topography, metres

Tehran

IRAQ

Below sea level

0 200 500 1,000 3,000 4,000 2,000

IRAN

Baghdad

Ispahan

Ahvaz

0

200

400

600

800 km

MAP BY IEVA RUCEVSKA AND PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ - SEPTEMBER 2005

The Caspian Sea runs north and south, extending over 1 200 kilometres, with an average width of 320 kilometres, with 7 000 km coastline. It covers approximately 400 000 square kilometres (an area slightly larger than Germany). The population of the region is about 14 million, distributed over the coastal provinces of five countries: 6.5 million in Iran, 3.9 million in Russia, 2.2 million in Azerbaijan, 0.8 million in Kazakhstan and 0.4 million in Turkmenistan.

The Caspian Sea region represented in the Catalan Atlas (1375) (Bibliothèque Nationale de France, Paris)

A medieval perception of the Caspian Sea or as it was named then Bahr al-Khazar, the Sea of Khazar. The North and the East appear empty, uncharted and unknown. In the South the Deylam Mountain Range, now named Elburz Range. In the West the worthy landmark is the Gate of the Gates (Ar. Bâb al-Abwâb), the present Derbent which was a wall separating and defending the Southern Caucasus from the invading northern tribes. Two big islands have caught the attention of the geographer, Siakoh and Albab, none of which of any importance today. Abu Zayd al-Balkhi the Persian scholar drew the map possibly based on the basis of travellers’ tales mixed with fiction and mystery. (Bodleian Library, Oxford, UK.)

Foreword

M ore than five years ago we published the first edition of Vital Caspian Graphics, which impressed readers with its abundance of new material presented in a synthesized and visually appealing format. Our goal that it be read in the streets of Astrakhan and Aktau may, however, have been too ambitious – or visionary – despite the numerous electronic tools that usually increase the circulation of our publications. Undeterred, and flush with revolutionary spirit to create a better world, we decided to produce a second edition. The world is changing , including the region around the Caspian Sea, and we are determined to capture and report these changes. The adoption of a protocol on oil pollution and the presentation of the first State of the Environment report at the third Conference of the Parties in Aktau in August 2011 mark the further evolution of the Caspian Convention. These vital graphics are a reader friendly publication which present

lesser-known aspects of the region while covering the broader picture in an attractive format. One of the highlights are the photographic essays by Rena Ef fendi and Mila Teshaieva. Our uncompromising attitude and our ambitions to reach out to communities beyond environmental professionals remain, and our inspiration from the first edition stays unchanged: I wanted to write a book as purely geographical in character, as dry and uncompromising as a travel report, and no more attractive than a rough-and-ready map sketched out with a lump of coal on a piece of packing paper. – Konstantin Paustovsky, Story of a Life, vol 6, The Restless Years

Otto Simonett, Geneva February 29th, 2012

9

1

Sea of opportunities, aspirations and challenges

I n recent years the Caspian Sea has been the focus of increased global attention. The world-wide decline in oil and gas reserves and the corresponding rise in the price of hydrocarbon derivatives have heightened interest in an area where there is still growth potential in oil and gas exploration. In addition, the region presents a wealth of opportunities in other areas, including bioresources, transport corridors, and not least tourism. These new ventures may bring increased prosperity, but they also put pressure on traditional rural communities and the environment.

The Caspian Sea: neighbours and players

DESTINATION OF RESOURCES

DISTANT NEIGHBOURS TRANSIT COUNTRIES

EUROPEAN UNION

JAPAN

CLOSEST NEIGHBOURS

RIPARIAN COUNTRIES

OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

CHINA AND INDIA

KAZAKHSTAN

RUSSIA

Ukraine

CASPIAN SEA RESOURCES (fish, oil)

Romania

Uzbekistan

Georgia

AZERBAIJAN

TURKMENISTAN

OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES

Bulgaria

NORTH AMERICA

The surge in the exploitation of hydrocarbons in the Caspian region has changed the rules for development andengagement inmany sectors, inparticular oil, landand sea transport, and services. National interests multiplied after the breakdown of the Soviet Union as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan gained independence. Relationships between these states are being tested as the possibility of large profits emerges. Additionally, with China entering the game as an increasingly strong economic player, the centre of gravity is moving east, demanding that new transport and communication routes are considered across the region.

Armenia

Pakistan

IRAN

Afghanistan

Greece

Turkey

10

11

Figure: Composition of human development index. The characteristic feature in all four post-Soviet countries is a relatively high level of education in relation to national income and rather low life expectancy, indicating high levels of poverty and deficient healthcare. In contrast the level for all three indicators in Iran is fairly balanced.

Human Development Index (HDI) composition for the Caspian countries compared with Norway (ranked first in 2007)

Life expectancy

1.0

0.9

0.8

Iran

0.7

Total HDI value: 0.782

0.6

1.0

Education

0.5

1.0

GDP

0.7 0.6

0.9 0.8

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Life expectancy

1.0

Gross National Income (GNI) in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) per capita

0.9

0.8

US dollars

Azerbaijan

0.7

Total HDI value: 0.787

10 000 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 17 000 18 000 19 000 20 000

Figure: Purchasing po­ wer parity (PPP) mea­ sures how much a currency can buy in terms of an inter­ national benchmark (usually dollars), since the cost of goods and services differs between countries. PPP is below the value of a US dollar in countries where the general price index is lower than in the US (as is the case for all five Caspian states, to varying extents), and above it where the prices are higher. A dollar thus buys much more in the Caspian countries than in the US, which only marginally compensates for the much lower income per person. These curves do not allow any conclusions on the wealth of individuals or income distribution among the population.

0.6

Education

1.0

0.5

GDP

1.0

0.9 0.8

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

0.7 0.6

Azerbaijan Iran

Russia Turkmenistan Kazakhstan

Life expectancy

1.0

0.9

0.8

Kazakhstan

0.7

Total HDI value: 0.804

0.6

1.0

Education

0.5

GDP

1.0

0.9 0.8

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

0.7 0.6

5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 1 000 0

Life expectancy

1.0

0.9

0.8

Turkmenistan Total HDI value: 0.739

0.7

0.6

1.0

Education

0.5

1.0

GDP

0.9 0.8

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

0.7 0.6

Life expectancy

1.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0.9

The Gross National Income (GNI), formerly Gross National Product (GNP), represents the broadest measure of national income. It measures the total value added from domestic and foreign sources claimed by residents. The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) dollar estimates the cost required to buy the same amount of goods in any country. The PPP is below the value of the US dollar in countries where the general price index is lower than that of the United States, and above it where prices are higher.

0.8

Russia

0.7

Total HDI value: 0.817

0.6

1.0

Education

0.5

GDP

1.0

0.7 0.6

0.9 0.8

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Source: Human Development Report 2009 , United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York.

Source: World Bank online database, accessed in April 2010.

12

13

The Caspian Sea region once only played a minor role in world politics. Interest focused exclusively on the Absheron peninsula and Baku, where the oil industry started developing in the last quarter of the 19th century, providing the only significant economic growth in the region. Otherwise the region remained largely rural, on the margins of two vast states (Tsarist Russia and Persia, subsequently the Soviet Union and Iran) and well away from the centres of industry. It often lagged behind in terms of development and infrastructure. North- south trade between Moscow and Tehran was limited, particularly as both countries had other much more significant coastlines. Since 2001 the economy has bottomed out of post- Soviet fatigue and started rising steadily in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan. In 2005 regional oil production reached roughly 1.9 million barrels a day (EIA 2006), comparable to South America’s second largest oil producer, Brazil. The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009 estimated the Caspian’s share of oil and gas proved reserves in 2008 at 3.8 per cent 1 and 5.9 per cent, respectively, of the world total, with oil and gas production at 3.2 per cent and 3.6 per cent. Despite the oil-related increase in national incomes, investment in the environment has not substantially increased. This reflects the national priorities for jobs, housing, education and health. The impact of the 2007-09 financial crisis is of equal importance, leaving its mark on all five countries. Almost everywhere the environment has been among the first sectors to feel the cuts in investment. As a result of the arid and semi-arid continental climatic conditions many of the coastal areas have specialized in extensive stock raising, essentially sheep and camels. Only in a few foothills with higher rainfall in the Eastern Caucasus and the Iranian provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran and Gulistan has prosperous mixed farming developed with orchards and market gardens.

The Caspian region has plenty to choose from when exploring past and present civilizations and cultures, historical monuments and the beauty of its natural resources. With unspoilt beaches in the east and west, lushmountain forests in the south, and the majestic Volga in the north, coupled with a mosaic of ethnic origins and cultures, it has the potential to attract thousands of visitors. Yet, the travel trade faces major challenges in the Caspian region. Sustainable tourism is still an unexplored opportunity but inadequate infrastructure, including improper waste management or water facilities, and stress on residential areas hinder growth in this sector. The Iranian part of the Caspian Sea, with its verdant plain and high mountains, accommodates twice its ‘normal’ population in the summer when tourists from other parts of Iran flock to the area. Some residences are set back only a few metres from the water line. In 2007 Turkmenistan approved a contract for Avaza, a huge national tourist resort involving the construction of an island on the shore of Caspian. All these developments pay little attention to the rise in sea level, which continues to be a real threat to the coastal area. Some parts of the region, such as Dagestan, are subject to limitations for security reasons. With an arid or semi-arid climate and difficult accessibility, parts of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan would also face problems in opening up for tourism. The coastal regions of the Caspian Sea support various forms of agriculture. The dry steppe of the Russian part (northern Daghestan, Kalmukia) and the arid areas of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan specialize in sheep farming. With rising demand for meat and wool, this reputedly difficult activity is increasingly attractive, particularly for enterprising stock raisers. The shores of southern Daghestan, the plains of Azerbaijan and the Volga delta have traditionally concentrated on subsistence farming and horticulture, dependent on properly maintained irrigation systems. Local vineyards, cotton fields, orchards (apples and peaches, but also mulberry for silk worms) and market gardening, have long supplied nearby towns and cities, and buyers further afield in northern Russia. Further south the more humid shores of the Lankaran area of Azerbaijan and the foothills of northern Iran have developed other specialities: tea, citrus fruit, walnuts and hazelnuts, all of which are still key resources.

The uncertain status of the Caspian Sea The high economic expectations and the newfound quest for national identity partly explain the obstacles to agreement over the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Existing maritime agreements between Iran and the Soviet Union, formerly the only countries bordering the sea, needed re-negotiation as the three new republics of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan emerged. Negotiations among the five countries are underway for a regional convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, but an over-arching agreement has yet to be reached on the division of the Caspian waters and – indirectly – its natural and mineral resources. But the northern states – Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan – signed a trilateral agreement in 2003 that allows them to proceed with the development of the hydrocarbon potential of the northern Caspian. The vital economic interests provide third parties and international stakeholders with a good reason to downplay the tensions between states bordering on the sea.

1 In this case Caspian share includes Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

14

15

Markets competing for Caspian oil and gas

Impoverished by successive crises, the rural population has been tempted to move to the region’s overpopulated cities, in keeping with a widespread trend, but overall the balance is beginning to tip in favour of farming. Greater investment is nevertheless needed to sustain this sector and downstream agrifood industries, which are currently outdated and ill equipped.

Fishing is important for all the littoral countries. The catch of fish from the Caspian contributes a significant share of the regional economy. Fisheries provide more than 7 000 jobs in Iran and perhaps an equal number in related activities. However, with fisheries cutting back due to the declining fish stocks, environmental degradation and changes in the ecosystem, the sector is losing its importance, leaving many of those who depended on it jobless.

BARENTS SEA

NORWEGIAN SEA

Y

e n

To Europe and North America

i s

e

Murmansk

y

Rovaniemi

Sweden

Norway

DN DES IAMALO- NENETS

DN DES EVENKS

DN DES NENETS

Oslo

r a

P e t c h o

BALTIC SEA

Finland

CARГLIE

O b

Denmark

Helsinki

PORT ET TERMINAL PГTROLIER EN CONSTRUCTION PERMETTANT D'ГVITER LES ГTATS BALTES Saint Petersburg

Tallinn

To Europe and North America

Y

VIA BALTICA

Estonia

KOMI S

e n

DN DES KHANTY- MANSIS

b

O

i s

e

Riga Latvia Lithuania Vilnius

y

AUTOROUTE ET TGV

y

Kaliningrad

DN DES KOMIS- PERMIAKS

Poland

KHAKASSIE To Vladivostok Japan and China

To Europe

ch blic

Russia

Minsk

RГP. DE MARII-EL

I rt y

c h

OUDMOURTI E MODERNISATION DU TRANSSIBГRIEN

Varsovie

Belarus

V

o l

g

a

Moscow

Omsk

b

O

Chelyabinsk

TCHOUVACHIE

Slovakia

TATARSTAN

MORDOVIE

To Europe

ALTAм

Kiev

BACHKORTOSTAN

Samara

a

g

o l

Astana

V

y c

I rt

h

D ni

Moldova

ep r Ukraine

Chisinau

VOIE FERRГE CONTOURNANT L'UKRAINE

Bucarest Romania

U

Odessa

Volgograd

r a l

o

Marioupol

n

D

Rostov

Alashanku

PORT EN CONSTRUCTION

SОbastopol CrimОe

Constanta BLACK SEA

Bulgaria

KHALMG- TANGTCH- KALMYKIE

Kazakhstan

Astrakhan

To Shanghai

Share of food in total household expenses

Novorossiysk

Atyrau

Bourgas Alexandroupolis

ece

Olia

BATEAUX- CITERNES To Europe and North America

In percentage

Almaty

Istanbul

ARAL SEA

FERRY

70 60 80 90 100

Chechnya

DОtroit des Dardanelles

DОtroit du Bosphore

Bichkek

Aktau

Georgia

CASPIAN SEA

Kyrgyzstan

Supsa

Ankara

Turkey

Tbilissi

DAGHESTAN

Tachkent

FERRY ET BATEAUX CITERNES Turkmenbashi

Uzbekistan

Azerbaijan

China

Armenia

Yerevan

Ceyhan

Baku

A r

Doushanbe Tajikistan

TRACECA ET INOGATE Turkmenistan

To Europe and North America

a

k

s

OLГODUC SOUS-MARIN

Ashgabad

Cyprus

Mossoul

Syria

Pakistan

0 10 20 30 40 50

MEDITERRANEAN SEA

Lebanon

ROUTE MER NOIRE - IRAN PERMETTANT LE DГSENCLAVEMENT DE L'ARMГNIE

Tehran

Afghanistan

Israel

India

Iraq

Palestine

Jordan

Herat

Iran

Egypt

To Oman Sea via Pakistan

0

500

1 000 km

MAP BY PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ LE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUE - APRIL 2006

Main transportation axes for oil and gas

Countries bordering on Caspian

Eastward (China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia) Westward (Europe and North America) Iranian alternative (Towards Persian Gulf) disqualified by the United States

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Other countries

Azerbaijan

Russia

Kazakhstan

Main zones for oil and gas extraction Sources: Stephen Blank, Central Asia’s energy game intensifies , Eurasianet, September 2005; United States Energy Information Administration (EIA); Sylvaine Pasquier, “Pressions sur l’or noir”, l’Express , 1st August 2005; InterstateOil andGas Transport toEurope (INOGATE ); EnergyMap of theMiddle East andCaspianSeaAreas, Petroleum Economist, London, 2003; International Energy Agency (IEA); Jean Radvanyi, Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (INALCO), IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010.

Source: CIS Statistical Yearbook , Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Figure: Share of food in total household expenses. In the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet regime and massive market deregulation, the breakdown of total household expenditure radically changed. Its focus shifted towards basic human needs, such as food, for which spending increased two or threefold in 10 years, reducing funds available for other essentials such as education and health.

16

17

Transportation projects converging on the Caspian

Sharing the new oil wealth

Transportation on the move

NORWEGIAN SEA

BARENTS SEA

Y

e n

i s

e

Murmansk

y

The prospects for rapid oil wealth contrast with fast spreading poverty following the collapse of the Soviet economy. Although massive investment has been channelled into the area, its effect is still both geographically and socially very limited, with little widespread impact on society. Nor does it fully compensate for the crisis in older, more traditional activities such as fisheries and agriculture and in the case of former Soviet republics, the closure of inefficient industrial complexes. In many countries the benefits of oil revenue are still restricted to the “happy few”. Some cities – Baku, and to a lesser extent Makhachkala and Astrakhan – have enjoyed spectacular growth. In the meantime much of the infrastructure – transport, telecommunications, drinking water – in small towns and rural areas is very poor. The poverty gap is widening, with much of the population increasingly excluded from services and wealth as privatization of social services progresses. In all the areas bordering on the Caspian Sea, priority should be given to diversifying activities and investment. Particular attention should be given to sectors such as tourism, agriculture and food production as well as services. Oil and gas alone cannot be expected to provide sufficient jobs for the fast-growing population. Only widespread diversification can contain rising unemployment, which is severely affecting several areas around the Caspian and forcing many young people to find work elsewhere.

For many years, coastal navigation has connected republics in the former Soviet Union. It used the only outlet from the Caspian, the Volga-Don canal, which connects the Black Sea and the Russian canal system to the Baltic. It is still used to transport rawmaterials, timber, coal, grain, fertilisers, and other products. However, the oil boom has changed the way the Caspian Sea is used as a transport route. In the absence of an agreement on the use of the seabed, including the laying of pipelines, crude oil is transported in tanker wagons rolled onto ferries or in small tankers. This has stimulated the ferry business. The shipyards at Nizhny Novgorod have recently delivered several 8 000 or 13 000 deadweight tonnage tankers, the largest that can be used given the limitations on access to the sea and its ports. Ferry services connecting Aktau and Turkmenbashi to Baku, and Olia to the coast of Iran are being supplemented by coastal rail links, all impacting on and introducing new risks to the natural and living environment of the growing population in the coastal areas of the Caspian Sea. The European Union’s TRACECA programme (TRAnsport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia) modernized the Baku-Turkmenbashi ferry line, for long the only one, and added a Baku-Aktau service to Kazakhstan. To counter competition from this new Silk Road, Russia has launched a project to build a north-south link, connecting the Baltic and Russia to Iran and the Persian Gulf. It has opened a new port at Olia, on the Volga delta, connected to the river and canal system, and to the rail network that runs parallel to the river, providing for fast container transport. It also has plans to supplement the maritime route by developing a coastal rail link, modernizing the existing track between Azerbaijan and Iran. Following the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine in January 2009 and the war opposing Russia and Georgia in August 2008, Western Europe is showing an increasing interest inAzerbaijan, in particular the proposedNabucco pipeline project which would supply Europe with gas by- passing Russia altogether. But although keen to look west, Baku is prepared to consider alternative political and commercial options (ISS, 2009).

Rovaniemi

Sweden

Norway

DN DES IAMALO- NENETS E

DN DES EVENKS

Indiga

DN DES NENETS

Oslo

BARENTS SEA- KOMSOMOLSK-ON-AMUR TRANSPORTATION ROUTE

BALTIC SEA

O b

Finland

P

Arkhangelsk

CARГLIE

e

t c

h o

Denmark

Helsinki Tallinn

r a

Y

KOMI S

Estonia

e n

Saint Petersburg

DN DES KHANTY- MANSIS

b

O

To Western Europe

i s

BARENTS SEA-CHINA TRANSPORTATION ROUTE

Riga

e

HIGHWAY AND FAST TRAIN CONNECTION

VIA BALTICA

y

Latvia

y

Kaliningrad

DN DES KOMIS- PERMIAKS

Lithuania

To Vladivostok and China

Poland

Russia

Vilnius

I rt y

c h

ch blic

RГP. DE MARII-EL

Moscow

KHAKASSIE

TRANS-SIBERIAN RENOVATION

OUDMOURTI E

Warsaw

V

o l

g

Minsk

a

Belarus

b

O

TCHOUVACHIE

Slovakia

Omsk

BLACK SEA-BALTIC TRANSPORTATION ROUTE

TATARSTAN

MORDOVIE

Chelyabinsk

ALTAм

To Western Europe

Kiev

BACHKORTOSTAN

Samara

D n

a

g

o l

ie p

V

y c

I rt

h

r

RUSSIA-IRAN TRANSPORTATION ROUTE Volgograd

Astana

Moldova

Ukraine

Chisinau

U

Odessa

Romania

r a l

To China

Marioupol

Rostov

Bucharest Bulgaria

Constanta

o

n

D

Kazakhstan

KHALMG- TANGTCH- KALMYKIE Astrakhan

Crimea

Atyrau

Burgas Alexandroupolis ece Istanbul

TRACECA AND INOGATE

BLACK SEA

CASPIAN SEA

Novorossiisk Olia

Almaty

ARAL SEA

FERRIES

Georgia

Bishkek

TRACECA AND INOGATE

Aktau

Dardanelles Bosphorus

Kyrgyzstan

Tbilisi

Ankara

DAGHESTAN

Azerbaijan Armenia

FERRIES AND TANKERS

Uzbekistan

Tashkent

China

Yerevan

Turkey

Baku

Towards Europe and North America

Turkmenbashi

Ceyhan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

TRACECA AND INOGATE

Ashgabad

Dushanbe

Cyprus

Mossoul BLACK SEA-IRAN ROUTE

Syria

Pakistan

MEDITERRANEAN SEA

Lebanon

India

Israel

Tehran

Iraq

West Bank

Egypt

Iran

Jordan

Afghanistan

0

500

1 000 km

MAP BY PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ LE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUE - APRIL 2006

Countries bordering on Caspian

Transcontinental transportation projects

MULTIMODAL ROUTES (highways, road, railroad and possibly pipelines) combined

SINGLE-MODE ROUTES (railway only)

Russia

Projects developed with Russia Projects developed without Russia

Projects developed with Russia Projects developed without Russia

Other countries

Sources: Jean Radvanyi, “La bataille des liaisons transasiatiques”, in Atlas du Monde diplomatique , Paris, January 2003; Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia (TRACECA), European Union, TACIS Programme, 2005.

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19

2 T he Caspian Sea is the largest closed body of water on the surface of the Earth. Its complete lack of any natural connection with the oceans makes it a very special ecosystem, and as such particularly vulnerable to external forces, such as climatic conditions or man-made changes to inflow. Fluctuation in sea level, associated with climate change, puts the environment, economic development and human security at risk. Fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea

Changing Caspian

Metres below sea level

-24.8 -25.2

2006

-25

Variation in sea level observed by instruments

-26

Average surface level

-27

-27.9

Forecasts calculated by

-28.0

-28

R.K. Klige B.N.Malinin

Geography Institute of National Science Academy of Azerbaijan and BSU hydrometeorology department

-29

FORECASTS

I. A. Shiklomanov

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020 2040 2050

Source: Panin, G., N., Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis. Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment Report for the Caspian Basin, 2007.

The sudden reversal of the trend after 1977, with a rise in the water level of about two metres, took many by surprise and caused widespread problems in several areas: flooding of urban facilities, destruction of roads and railways, damage to industrial infrastructure on land and offshore, and destruction of beaches. Several tens of thousands of people in the lowlands of Azerbaijan, Daghestan and the Volga delta had to move. In Azerbaijan alone, damage resulting from the rise in sea level is estimated at US$2bn. In Kazakhstan the encroaching sea has directly affected some 20 000 square kilometres of land, including the abandoned oil wells. Fluctuating water levels will affect the population of the coastline and can cause substantial economic damage if appropriate measurements are not taken. A rise in sea level of 1.2 metres would flood Anzali, an Iranian city on the low-lying coastal plain in the south- west corner of the Caspian, and turn it into an island, according to forecasts.This would cost the city billions of dollars and cause massive population displacement. The scenario for rising sea level and subsequent events could very well repeat itself in the other major ports around the Caspian Sea including Baku. In the absence of preparedness, flooding could wreak havoc in the capital of Azerbaijan and cause billions of dollars worth of damage and untold human suffering leading to possible social unrest and conflict.

Sea level rise in Anzali Lagoon, Iran

The Caspian Sea has been endoreic – inwardly draining – since the Pliocene era (about 5 million years ago), prompting some specialists to treat it as the world’s largest lake. Studies of its geomorphology and hydrology have revealed alternating cycles of rising and falling water levels, raising many questions, scientific for some, more down-to-earth for those living on its shores. In a century, between 1880 and 1977, the level of the sea dropped four metres (from -25 metres to -29 metres below mean sea level) apart from short periods during which it rose slightly. During this time local people became accustomed to the gradual drop in the water level, carrying out all sorts of work on the shores, particularly after the Second World War: port infrastructures, roads and railways, construction of housing and holiday facilities. In the Soviet Union the dramatic drying up of the Azov Sea, a side-basin of the Black Sea, which occurred at the same time, gave rise to genuine fears that the Caspian – or at least its very shallow northern part, which is less than 25 metres deep – would in turn shrink significantly. This led to hasty, misguided decisions such as the construction of a dyke in 1983 to close the Kara Bogaz Gol gulf.

Caspian Sea

West Basin

Anzali

Siah Keshim

Central Basin

East Region

Sheyjan

Tash

Esphand

Shiadarvish

Area that will be submerged by 2017 with a sea level rise of 1.2 metres

Lagoon extention (as of 2002) Urban areas and buildings Area cultivated with rice Fish ponds

IRAN

The scenario pedicts a sea level rise of 1.2 metres assuming a constant rise over a period of 10 years. Sources: Caspian Environment Programme, Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Revisit, 2007.

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21

Fragmentation of the Volga river over the last 60 years

Annual discharge into the Caspian Sea

1934

Today

36° E

48° E

36° E

48° E

60° N

Beloye Lake

Verhne Volzhinskiy Beishlot

Rybinsk

Kostroma

Perm

Tver Ivankovskoye Reservoir

Cheboksary

Izhevsk

VOLGA BASIN 237 km 3 (80 %)

Gorky

Moscow

Kazan

Kazan

Niznhy Novgorod

Moscow

Naberezhnye Chelny

Sturgeon spawning grounds on the Volga Hectares

Samara

52° N

Kuybyshev

52° N

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

Balakovo

Saratov

Saratov

URAL BASIN 8.1 km 3 (3 %)

Volgograd

Shoreline of the Caspian Sea in 1934

Stalingrad

48° N

Main dams 0 200 km

Astrakhan

Astrakhan

CASPIAN SEA

0

Aral Sea

CASPIAN SEA

TEREK BASIN 7.4 km 3 (2.5 %)

1934 1999

Sources: Caspian Environment Programme, 2002; UNESCO,2004.

Black Sea

44° N

CASPIAN SEA

KURA ARAKS BASIN 17 km 3 (6.3 %)

The factors behind the changes in the level of the Caspian Sea are still the focus of debate. Scientists have not ruled out the involvement of tectonic (movement of the Earth’s crust below the sea) or geomorphologic causes (rate of sedimentation). However, these would appear to have a minor impact in comparison to changing climatic factors, combined with the effects of human management of surface water in the Caspian basin. Most of the water flowing into the sea comes from coastal rivers. The quantity and quality of this water, particularly that of the Volga, are key variables in the balance of the Caspian. To this must be added rainfall over the sea itself. Water may also be lost through infiltration into the ground and flow into the Kara Bogaz Gol gulf, but these factors are insignificant compared with natural evaporation from the sea. The construction of a large number of dams and industrial facilities on the rivers feeding the Caspian Sea has caused a significant change in the quantity of water inflow. The creation of a succession of large reservoirs, especially on the lower and middle Volga, has led to significant losses in flow rate due to additional evaporation from the surface of the water. Coupled

with unsustainable water consumption, in particular in connection with irrigation, the river flow rate is now only 10 per cent of the natural levels. Uncertainty regarding future variations in the sea level is holding back the development of many coastal zones suitable for holiday amenities or the construction of ports. But stretches of the Caspian coast are already packed with unsustainable tourist developments. The Iranian coastal area, home to some 7 million people, has registered a 5 per cent annual increase in population over the past decade. Demographic pressure has turned the area close to the sea into residential property, despite the risk of flooding. In 2007 the government of Turkmenistan approved the start of the Avaza national tourism zone, a special economic space occupying 5 000 hectares on the shore of the Caspian. It also authorized the complete modernization of a seaport in Turkmenbashi. The rising sea level also complicates further offshore oil prospecting, currently expanding in the north- east corner of the sea, off the coasts of Kazakhstan and Russia. The very shallow water in this part poses problems for access and safety.

0

200

400 km

N.B.: The size of the arrows is proportional to the volume of the average annual discharge

Source: World Lakes Database, International Lake Environment Committee (ILEC), 2005.

Figure: Most of the water flowing into the sea comes from coastal rivers – currently supplying 300 to 310 km 3 a year. The Volga alone accounts for 80% of inflow. But it has dropped substantially during the 20th century, declining from about 400 km 3 in the 1920-30s to from 260 to 270 km 3 at present, due to various climatic factors and human activities such as dams built for hydroelectric energy production. Rainfall over the sea itself is estimated to contribute 130 km 3 a year. Water loss through infiltration into the ground accounts for less than 5 km 3 and flow into the Kara Bogaz Gol gulf about 18 km 3 , since the destruction of the dyke. Natural evaporation from the sea is estimated to cause a loss of between 350 and 375 km 3 a year. Combining these estimates for water input (about 440 km 3 ) and loss (about 373 km 3 ) suggests that the water level in the Caspian Sea should still be rising.

22

23

U

r a l

1

2

Caspian coastline

vulnerable to flooding

V o l g a

b a

Atyrau

m

E

Atyrau Town and Ural River delta

Astrakhan

Western Kazakh coast

Tengiz oil field

Volga delta

RUSSIA

Lagan region

2

1

RUSSIA

Atyrau

Astrakhan

Terek River delta

k

e

r

T e

Aktau

Aktau

k

KAZAKHSTAN

a

S u l

KAZAKHSTAN

Makhachkala

Makhachkala

Potential inundated areas if water level rises:

3

4

+5 metres +2 metres +1 metre Reference level (-27 metres) Vulnerable area in case of flooding

AZERBAIJAN

TURKMENISTAN

0 50 100 km

0 50 100 km

Baku

Turkmenbashi

3

4

5

Qobustan

Rasht

Source: Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for the Caspian Sea , Caspian Environment Programme, 2002.

Xacmas-Divichi

IRAN

Gorgan

Kara Bogaz Gol

Sumgait

Apsheron Peninsula

AZERBAIJAN

5

Turkmenbashi

Baku

TURKMENISTAN

Qobustan

TURKMENISTAN

Khazar Peninsula

K u

r a

Khazar

Anzali

Safid Rud delta

Rasht

Kura River Delta

Ramsar

d

R u

a f i d

IRAN

S

Ekerem-Esenguli

Lenkaran

0

50

100 km

0

50

100 km

0 50 100 km

24

25

Temperature and precipitation in the Caspian Sea Region

Selected impacts of climate change in the Caspian basin

Volga

Coastal zone defined by the Caspian Environment Programme

Atyrau

RUSSIA

On atmosphere

On sea ice

Astrakhan

KAZAKHSTAN

Boundaries of drifting ice during severe winters, late 1990s Boundaries of drifting ice during moderate winters, late 1990s Ice extent (including drifting ice) as of 01 February 2010

Strong increase in temperature during the cold season (more than 4.5 ºC) for 2070-2099 period

On land and sea

Terek

Severe desertification

Aktau

Makhachkala

Precipitation increase recorded in 2010 Precipitation decrease recorded in 2010 Risk of flooding due to storm surges and sea level fluctuation

On water basins

River runoff increasing Reduction of water resources due to temperature increase

Caspian Sea

Tbilisi

Kura

AZERBAIJAN

Turkmenbashi

Baku

Yerevan

Note: Precipitation variations indicate the increase or decrease between August-October 2010 and August-October’s mean for 1979-2000.

TURKMENISTAN

Araks

0

100

200 km

Sources: Caspian Environment Programme, Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Revisit, 2007; Panin, G. N., Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment Report for the Caspian Basin, 2006; Kuderov, T., Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment Report for Kazakhstan, 2006, and Sea ice cover in the Caspian and Aral Seas, 2004 ; Elguindi N. and Giorgi F. Simulating future Caspian sea level changes using regional climate model outputs, 2006; Global Forest Watch, on-line database, accessed on May 2010; Philippe Rekacewicz, Vital Caspian Graphics, 2006; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, maps on line, accessed november 2010; De Martino and Novikov, Environment and Security, the case of the Eastern Caspian Region, 2008. .

Rasht

Gorgan

Sari

IRAN

1.5 6.5 8.5 10.5 12 14 15.5 20 °C

90 170 220 330 500 700 1 300 1 650 mm

Mean annual temperature (°C)

Mean annual precipitation (millimetres)

Several severe droughts have affected various parts of the region in recent years. They seem to confirm scientific models, which, in addition to higher mean temperatures, generally predict more extreme weather events. Droughts affect both crop production and the health of livestock. For example, the economically important Karakul sheep of Turkmenistan, which are raised for wool production, are sensitive to heat stress. In addition to the loss of agricultural productivity, droughts can increase the frequency and severity of fires, which may destroy grassland and crops. Contrasting rainfall trends have been observed in the north and south. Whereas rainfall over Russia has increased over the last century, already dry areas such as the coasts of Turkmenistan have become even drier. Changes are also visible at the coast of Iran that becomes drier with climate change. Dust storms pick up large

amounts of salt and dust as they pass over the Kara-Kum desert and the Caspian shore, depositing it in the Volga valley where it impairs the fertility of arable land. But the availability of freshwater, on which many sectors of the economy – and human well-being – depend, is also linked to more remote climatic processes. If glaciers in the Caucasus and Elburz mountains recede and the periods of snow cover become shorter, as has been the case in recent years, less water will be available for use in irrigation and homes. Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of weather-related events and natural disasters such as floods, droughts, landslides, avalanches, debris flows and mud flows. For example, in the last 30 years mudflows in the Terek river basin in the north-eastern Caucasus have occurred almost annually. The most

Source: UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Europe, Geneva, 2005.

Climate change

Climatic phenomena in the Caspian are linked to the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (fluctuations in atmospheric air pressure). These variations affect temperatures, moisture and winter storms all across Europe including the Volga basin, as well as rainfall over the Caspian basin. As inmost parts of the globe, the climate is changing, with consequences for human activities and the sea itself.

The Caspian Sea region is climatically diverse encompassing the basins of the Volga and Ural rivers in the North, the vast semi-arid and hot arid plains of northern Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the east, and the humid Caucasus and Elburz mountains in the south-west. The Caspian Sea plays an important role in atmospheric processes, regional water balance and microclimate.

26

27

Uncertain weather

destructive mudflows were recorded in 2000 and were perhaps linked to persistent above-average summer temperatures. In September 2002 the Kolka glacier near Mount Kazbek, the highest peak in the eastern Caucasus, collapsed. The water which had accumulated inside and below the glacier triggered an avalanche that travelled more than 24 kilometres at very high speed killing over 120 people. In 2003 a flood in the Ismayilli-Gobustan region of Azerbaijan affected 31 500 people. Finally, scientists note that human-induced climate change, which has become evident in recent decades, is now playing a major part in the fluctuation of the Caspian Sea level, as well as changing the entire ecosystem. Preliminary research under the Caspian Environmental Programme linked several environmental phenomena to climate change, among others unforeseen algae bloom in 2005, changes in food chain and the morphology, increasing groundwater salinity and diminishing wetland. Human activities can have a powerful influence on the local climate. Widespread irrigation networks and dams are depleting the soil, exposing it to erosion. Ground water supplies are thereby reduced, which can cause the whole water regime to change. This can influence local temperatures and consequently the evaporation potential. Oil and gas exploration activities can not only cause localised pollution of air, soil and sea, but also emissions of greenhouse gases such as methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that add to the global greenhouse effect and lead to warming of the atmosphere. It is estimated that on and offshore fossil fuel production in the Caspian area emits 15 to 20 million tonnes of CO 2 -equivalent annually. The expected rise in fuel production will further increase greenhouse gas emissions unless appropriate countermeasures are taken. The human factor

Regional land degradation

It is difficult to predict how climatic changes at a global level will affect the climate of a particular region. Although climate scenarios commonly suggest warming and increased rainfall over the north of the Caspian and its vicinity, with lower rainfall to the south, there is considerable uncertainty as to the influence of the sea, the effects of the complex topography, cloud cover, and other factors. The critical point is that there is no way of predicting whether the climate systemwill react in a linear way or if it will suddenly collapse inonewayor another once a critical threshold is reached. As the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increases, the temperature in the European part of the Caspian region will continue to rise, at least at first. Some researchers have recently expressed fears that the warm Gulf Stream current in the Atlantic Ocean may slow down due to the changes in the Arctic environment and oceanic circulation. As a result, the regional temperatures could drop significantly creating an extremely harsh climate.

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29