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HICAP’s approach to the historical analysis of climate projections

Historical analysis For the historical analysis of precipitation, daily precipitation analysis using high-resolution gridded precipitation data sets developed by APHRODITE’s water resources (Asian Precipitation – Highly- Resolved Observational Daily Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources) were used to analyse the rainfall trends and variabilities. For the historical analysis of temperature, one-degree resolution maximum and minimum daily data generated by the Hydroclimatological Group, Princeton University, were used. The data set is bias-corrected and is a hybrid of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) re-analysis and observations. Climate projections Climate modellers all over the world use different models (global, regional and local) to investigate how different patterns of greenhouse gas emissions may impact on our climate over time. These models are based on different scenarios, which are assumptions that inform the model about factors such as policy, socioeconomics, emissions, and the interaction of climate gases with environmental and socioeconomic systems. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are standardized scenarios that include time series of emissions and concentration of the full suite of greenhouse gases and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover 122 towards 2100. The word ‘representative’ signifies that each RCP provides only one of many possible scenarios that could lead to the specific radiative forcing characteristics. The term ‘pathway’ emphasises that not only the

Research and Training Expedition to Yala Glacier to monitor changes in glaciers and snow, Langtang Valley, Nepal


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