Publication Name

Changes in discharge for selected rivers in the HKH region

Cubic metres per second

10 000

Average total flow projection, 2041–2050 Projection range Baseline (1998–2007)

Rainfall runoff Snow melt Glacier melt Baseflow

7 500

RCP 4.5

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 watts per metre squared in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. It includes long-term global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework.

5 000

2 500

0

Mekong

Salween

Brahmaputra

Satluj (Upper Indus)

Ghaghara (Upper Ganges)

Kabul (Upper Indus)

Koshi (Upper Ganges)

Indus

Note: Changes in discharge are modelled for specific locations along these rivers.

Cubic metres per second

January

10 000

February March April

May

7 500

June

July

RCP 8.5

August

September October

RCP 8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of climate change policies.

5 000

November

December

2 500

0

Satluj (Upper Indus)

Kabul (Upper Indus)

Salween

Indus

Mekong

Ghaghara (Upper Ganges)

Brahmaputra

Koshi (Upper Ganges)

Source: Lutz, AF et al. (2014) ‘Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation.’ Nature Climate Change 4: 587–592

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