Publication Name
Changes in discharge for selected rivers in the HKH region
Cubic metres per second
10 000
Average total flow projection, 2041–2050 Projection range Baseline (1998–2007)
Rainfall runoff Snow melt Glacier melt Baseflow
7 500
RCP 4.5
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 watts per metre squared in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. It includes long-term global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework.
5 000
2 500
0
Mekong
Salween
Brahmaputra
Satluj (Upper Indus)
Ghaghara (Upper Ganges)
Kabul (Upper Indus)
Koshi (Upper Ganges)
Indus
Note: Changes in discharge are modelled for specific locations along these rivers.
Cubic metres per second
January
10 000
February March April
May
7 500
June
July
RCP 8.5
August
September October
RCP 8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of climate change policies.
5 000
November
December
2 500
0
Satluj (Upper Indus)
Kabul (Upper Indus)
Salween
Indus
Mekong
Ghaghara (Upper Ganges)
Brahmaputra
Koshi (Upper Ganges)
Source: Lutz, AF et al. (2014) ‘Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation.’ Nature Climate Change 4: 587–592
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