Publication Name

The future of climate and water in the HKH region Projections for selected HKH river basins, 2041–2050

10

5

15

0

20

10

5

15

0

20

C HINA

10

5

15

10

5

0

20

15

0

20

10

A FGHANISTAN

5

15

0

20

Annual runoff and projections Millimetres per year

0

3

INDUS

1 500

1

2

P AKISTAN

0

3

SALWEEN

C HINA

0

3

BRAHMA- PUTRA

1

2

1 200

0

3

GANGES`

0

3

1

2

MEKONG

B HUTAN

N EPAL

1

2

1

2

900

RCP 4.5 Reference (1998–2007) RCP 8.5

I NDIA

M YANMAR

B ANGLADESH

600

Rainfall runoff Baseflow

Notes: RCP 4.5 ensemble means – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 watts per metre squared in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. It includes long-term global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP 8.5 ensemble means – RCP 8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of climate change policies.

Temperature increase Degrees (C)

Precipitation increase Percentage

Snow melt

300

10

0

3

5

15

Glacier melt

1

2

0

20

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

0

Source: Lutz, AF et al. (2014) ‘Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation.’ Nature Climate Change 4: 587–592

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