The Environmental Food Crisis

Greater Horn of Africa 1995-1997 20% of cattle 20% of sheep and goats

Southern Ethiopia 1983-1984 45-90% of cattle 18% of sheep and goats 1991-1993 42% of cattle 1995-1997 46% of cattle 41% of sheep and goats 1998-1999 62% of cattle

Niger 1982-1984 62% of national cattle herd

Namibia 1993 22% of cattle, 41% of goats and sheep

Northern Kenya 1991 28% of cattle, 18% of sheep and goats

Botswana 1981-1984 20% of national herd

Figure 22: Impacts on drought on livestock numbers in selected African countries. (Source: IPCC, 2007).

to such events. For example, nine major droughts in selected African countries between 1981 and 2000 resulted in an aver- age livestock loss of 40%, with a range of 22–90% (Figure 22). Similar effects may be observed on crop production. Based on the extent of irrigated cropland impacted in Asia and increas- ing water scarcity as a result of extreme weather, an annual re- duction in the future from climate-induced water scarcity and decreasing water tables may account for an estimated reduc- tion of the world food production by 1.5% by 2030 and at least 5% by 2050. Water scarcity in terms of drought or depleted groundwater could therefore have great impacts on livestock and range- lands. These interactions are also complex. While drought can

directly threaten livestock, other factors that influence water availability for livestock are seasonal droughts and socio-eco- nomic changes, such as permanent settlement and occupation of seasonal pastures by people other than pastoralists, avail- ability and quality of rangelands, livestock numbers and man- agement approaches. The combined effects of melting of glaciers, seasonal floods and overuse of ground and surface water for industry, settle- ments and irrigation, combined with poor water-use efficiency are difficult to estimate. However, given that 40% of the world’s crop yields are based on irrigation, and almost half of this from the basins of rivers originating in the Himalayas alone, the ef- fect of water scarcity can be substantial.

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