The Environmental Food Crisis

maize in the absence of any agricultural adaptation to cli- mate change have been projected by Lobell et al. (2008). The effects of extreme weather are not included in these estimates. In addition, these effects are projected to 2030 only, when the impacts of climate change would be only just emerging. Increasing our understanding how crops may be impacted under climate change conditions may provide alternatives for adaptive strategies in the most vul- nerable regions of the world (Lobell et al ., 2008).

by 2080, assuming a 4.4° C increase in temperature and a 2.9% increase in precipitation, global agricultural output potential is likely to decrease by about 6%, or 16% without carbon fertilization. Cline suggested a range of output po- tential decline between 10 and 25% among regions. As cli- mate change increases, projections have been made that by 2080 agricultural output potential may be reduced by up to 60% for several African countries, on average 16–27%, dependent upon the effect of carbon fertilization (Figures 18 and 19). These effects are in addition to general water scarcity as a result of melting glaciers, change in rainfall patterns, or overuse.

Based on a consensus estimate of 6 climate models and two crop modelling methods, Cline (2007) concluded that

Projected changes in agricultural productivity to 2080 due to climate change, incorporating the effects of carbon fertilization -50% -15% 0

+15% +35% No data

Figure 18: Projected losses in food production due to climate change by 2080. (Source: Cline, 2007).

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