The Environmental Food Crisis

The interaction among these variables is very complex, and pro- viding quantitative estimates of their significance is nearly impos- sible. The key variables are not currently accounted for in most models and scenarios of food production (FAO, 2003; 2006). In this chapter we attempt to provide estimates of possible rang- es of future impacts of environmental degradation on yield and available cropland, based on the best knowledge available, peer- reviewed studies and expert judgment. We will not, however, at- tempt to quantify the full value of ecosystem services from the environment, which entail complex interactions and processes.

The estimates given here are of possible ranges based on some current projections of the degree of environmental degradation.

The FAO has provided estimates of cropland and yield increas- es necessary to meet future demand for food, without fully con- sidering the role of environmental degradation and losses of ecosystem services. Hence, the following material provides an insight into the possible losses (and the compensation needed) in food production as a result of environmental degradation, to support other UN agencies in further improving estimates of demand and production in a changing world.

LOSS OF CROPLAND AREA There has been a growing trend all over the world in converting cropland to other uses due to increasing urbanization, indus- trialization, energy demand and population growth. China, for example, lost more than 14.5 million ha of arable land between 1979 and 1995 (ICIMOD, 2008). 1000

Latin America and Caribbean

Area (million ha)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Industrial countries

800

Current projections suggest that an additional 120 million ha – an area twice the size of France or one-third that of India – will be needed to support the traditional growth in food production by 2030, mainly in developing countries (FAO, 2003), without considering the compensation required for certain losses. The demand for irrigated land is projected to increase by 56% in Sub- Saharan Africa (from4.5 to 7 million ha), and rainfed land by 40% (from 150 to 210million ha) in order to meet the demand, without considering ecosystem services losses and setbacks in yields and available cropland (FAO, 2003; 2006). Increases in available crop- land may be possible in Latin America through the conversion of rainforests (Figure 13), which in turnwill accelerate climate change and biodiversity losses, causing feedback loops that may hinder the projected increases in crop yields. The potential for increases is more questionable in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa due to political, socio-economic and environmental constraints. In Asia, nearly 95% of the potential cropland has already been utilized (FAO, 2003; 2006). Even if such increases are not restricted by other land use and the protection of tropical rainforests, changes in the proportion of non-food crops to food crops may have even greater impacts on the available cropland for food production.

600

Transition countries

East Asia

400

South Asia

Near East and North Africa

200

0

Arable land 1997-1999

Land suitable for rainfed crops

Figure 13: Theoretical potential for cropland expansion, irre- spective of conservation, water and other environmental issues. (Source: FAO, 2003).

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