Stories and Solutions

Polar and Mountain Environments The polar and high mountain regions of the world play an important role in the Earth’s climate system, including helping to regulate global temperatures, drive ocean circulation, and store water in the form of glaciers and ice sheets. In many ways, these regions are the planet’s barometer, telling us a great deal about the present and future effects of climate change. In 2015, GRID-Arendal worked to draw attention to some of the most critical environmental and climatic challenges facing these regions, providing policy makers with the latest scientific evidence on climate change and options for adaptation.

Climate Change Adaptation in the Himalayas In 2015, GRID-Arendal continued its successful collaboration with ICIMOD and CICERO in the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation (HICAP) programme. Highlights included the production and launch of the Himalayan Climate and Water Atlas: Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Five of Asia’s Major River Basins . The report received significant media attention in the region – including in national daily newspapers in India, Pakistan and Nepal – following its

launch at a side event during the Paris climate change negotiations. GRID-Arendal and ICIMOD also continued their communication collaboration to complete a series of short video films on climate change and adaptation in the region. The Water Atlas will be reviewed in an international, peer reviewed journal called Mountain Research and Development published by the International Mountain Society in Switzerland.

Graphic from the Himalayan Climate and Water Atlas. Credit:GRID-Arendal/Riccardo Pravettoni

The future of climate and water in the HKH region Projections for selected HKH river basins, 2041–2050

10

5

15

0

20

10

5

15

0

20

C HINA

10

5

15

10

5

0

20

15

0

20

10

A FGHANISTAN

5

15

0

20

Annual runoff and projections Millimetres per year

0

3

INDUS

1 500

1

2

P AKISTAN

0

3

SALWEEN

C HINA

0

3

BRAHMA- PUTRA

1

2

1 200

0

3

GANGES`

0

3

1

2

MEKONG

B HUTAN

N EPAL

1

2

1

2

900

RCP 4.5 Reference (1998–2007) RCP 8.5

I NDIA

M YANMAR

B ANGLADESH

600

Rainfall runoff Baseflow

Notes: RCP 4.5 ensemblemeans –RepresentativeConcentrationPathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5wattspermetre squared in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. It includes long-termglobal emissionsofgreenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in aglobal economic framework. RCP 8.5 ensemblemeans –RCP 8.5 combines assumptions abouthighpopulation and relatively slow incomegrowthwithmodest ratesof technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term tohigh energydemand and greenhousegas emissions in the absenceof climate changepolicies.

Temperature increase Degrees (C)

Precipitation increase Percentage

Snow melt

300

10

0

3

5

15

Glacier melt

1

2

0

20

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

0

Source: Lutz,AF et al. (2014) ‘Consistent increase inHighAsia’s runoffdue to increasingglaciermelt andprecipitation.’ NatureClimateChange 4: 587–592

20