Reindeer Husbandry and Barents 2030

APPENDIX 2. METHODOLOGY FOR THE GLOBIO SCENARIOS

For the development of future scenarios, the following assumptions were made:

based on data and projections obtained for different continents, for the period 1850–2000. Detailed descrip- tions of methodology are given at www.globio.info. For estimates on the area available to reindeer herding and subsequent alternative scenarios of development, we used the Barlindhaug scenarios (Barlindhaug 2005). In addition, the GEO3 scenarios were applied to pro- vide a broader range of possible outcomes of different policies. The Barlindhaug scenarios are comparable to the Market forces scenario of GEO3 with enhanced de- velopment surrounding key petroleum or gas centres along the coast. The scenarios depict different rates of development dependent upon economic growth and different management regimes. The scenarios serve to illustrate the variability and range of uncertainties that are involved in scenario generation. For details on this methodology, please consult UNEP (2003a, b).

1.

Infrastructure primarily expands away from existing infrastructure and through further aggregation Infrastructural development will continue according to current rates of increase Areas with relatively high current population den- sity will experience relatively high rates of growth in infrastructure Areas with known timber, oil, gas or mineral re- sources will experience relatively high rates of growth in infrastructure Areas close to coasts will experience relatively high rates of growth in infrastructure (historic pattern)

2.

3.

4.

5.

The rate of growth in infrastructure is estimated from historic changes in land use and road development

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