Reindeer Husbandry and Barents 2030

Inner Finnmark comprises the part of Norway in which the local effects of climate change are likely to be most pronounced (ACIA 2004). Models predict that the mean temperature and precipitation in inner Finnmark may increase by as much as 0.7ºC or 10% per decade dur- ing the next 30–50 years. Most scenarios predict that temperatures will continue to rise both in summer and CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

winter. In addition, more severe storms and winds are expected, as well as increased precipitation. For rein- deer grazing conditions, this will lead to more unstable winters in continental areas, with a further increased frequency of freeze-thaw cycles and subsequent icing of pastures. Summer pastures may change from open to shrub-vegetated land. Growing seasons will become

Figure 7. Projected climate change will create changes in snow ablation patterns, vegetation patterns and freeze-thaw cycles, which in turn will strongly influence seasonal pastures by reindeer. Extreme weather condi- tions will, in turn, require herders to move animals more frequently, and the accessibility to undisturbed land will become even more essential in the coming decades. The coastal ranges, and particularly the lowland areas, are currently under the greatest threat from continued piecemeal development (ACIA 2004).

REINDEER HUSBANDRY AND BARENTS 2030 38