Programme Cooperation Agreement 2012 – 2013

5 Attribution of results

While clear causal links – from inputs and activities through outputs to outcomes and impacts – form the basis of project design, the attribution of a particular result tends to become more tenuous along the results chain. GRID-Arendal’s outputs, such as reports and websites, are relatively easy to identify and attribute. Direct linkages to outcomes and impacts are generally harder to establish. One reason for this is the time lag that often exists between the delivery of products and services and the emergence of related outcomes and impacts - especially when the latter depend on decision-making processes. Several of GRID-Arendal’s projects are subject to these delays along the results chain, including the Blue Carbon initiative, the Shelf Programme and the Nomadic

Herders project. Indeed, some of the results that can now be attributed to GRID-Arendal, actually relate to work done before the 2012-2013 biennium, and some of the results from this biennium will not become apparent until some time in the future. In addition, decision- makers rarely make decisions based on a single source of information. Many of GRID-Arendal’s reports are likely to have influenced decisions, but it is rarely possible to prove this connection. The Rapid Response Assessments on transnational wildlife crimes, available to decision- makers at the CITES COPs, are a case in point. Despite these limitations in attribution, considerable evidence is available and presented in this report to trace direct and indirect linkages from the work of GRID-Arendal to positive outcomes and/or impacts.

6 Methodology and structure

To make it easy to identify and track progress on specific programme components, the programme delivery is reported in chapters 7 to 10 following the same order and subdivision of programme areas as they are listed in the MFA PCA: Marine Environment, Polar & Cryosphere, Capacity Building & Assessment, and Communication & Outreach. Within each of these, and in order to illuminate the connection between planned activities and their associated achievements, the narrative on major projects or programmes covers both implementation and results. Presentation of results is easily identified in the narrative by blue text boxes. While the Final Report reflects the functional division of GRID-Arendal, it should be noted that the ‘programme- wide support’ provided by Communications & Outreach (including cartography, publication layout, graphics generation, digital integration, and web development) are intrinsically related to the operations of the other three units. Therefore, the contributions to GRID-Arendal’s strategic objectives made by the Communications & Outreach unit are to a significant extent reflected in the

activities of the other units and, consequently, in the narrative of this report.

Chapter 11 presents comprehensive financial information for the 2012-2013 biennium. The report concludes by summarizing some of the key considerations for programme management including deviations from, and adjustments to the programme, problems and risks encountered, Work Programme efficiency and effectiveness and, last but not least, insight into lessons learned. The gender dimension is addressed in the report under individual interventions where relevant, rather than as a ‘stand-alone’ segment. Annex 1 presents a letter from UNEP’s Executive Director Achim Steiner to Olav Orheim, Chair of the Board GRID- Arendal. GRID-Arendal’s strategic directions 2014-2017 with a global map of GRID-Arendal’s geographic focus are contained in Annex 2. Annex 3 presents the letters from the auditors regarding GRID-Arendal’s finances for 2012 and 2013. Annex 4 outlines GRID-Arendal’s strategic areas of focus for 2014-2017.

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