Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Tropical Andes mountains

Energy (hydropower)

The Andean countries are highly dependent on hydropower: hydroelectric energy represents an average of about 64% of total energy supply across the Andean countries (CEPAL, 2011), of which 52% is generated within the mountain region overall, but with large variation between countries (CONDESAN, 2012). The mountain regions harbour the majority of the hydropower dams of the seven countries. However, there are very few studies on the future impacts of climate change on hydropower generation. Each country adopts a different approach to addressing adaptation in the energy sector. Policies in other sectors, such as water resourcemanagement, also affect energy production. Colombia is planning to diminish its energy vulnerability through a comprehensive approach, which combines improving efficiency, diversifying sources and conserving watersheds and ecosystems. Ecuador’s energy policy indirectly relates to hydropower because of its focus on diminishing the country’s dependency on fossil fuels: hydropower

will thereby gradually increase its share as an energy source. Bolivia is planning large hydro schemes in the Andean foothills (El Bala) and the Amazon lowlands (Cachuela Esperanza, Riberao). Peru’s perspective is the optimal use of energy resources, and improving infrastructure. Thus, the country advocates the efficient use of energy to mitigate GHG emissions and promotes climate change adaptation measures. Further, Peru is starting to diversify its energy mix to diminish its dependency on natural gas, promoting renewable energy sources including forms other than hydropower such as wind farms, solar and biomass power plants. 53 Many economical activities with significant potential (such as hydropower) and that depend on ecosystem goods and services will be negatively affected by climate change. A number of studies (e.g. Fearnside, 2002; Fearnside, 2005) have shown that large scale hydro in the Amazon lowlands result in higher GHG emissions than conventional power plants, due to the combined effects of forest land destruction and additional methane production during normal operation. Out of some 151 dams proposed for the Amazon system, over half are expected to disrupt or sever the river connectivity between the Andean highlands and headwaters and the Amazon lowlands (Finer and Jenkins 2012). Opportunities Energy demand currently outstrips supply in the region. The Andes have huge potential for generating hydropower to meet the energy supply. Despite the climate impacts, hydropower will remain an important source of energy production in the Andes. However, managing it properly will require forward-

looking adaptation measures including conservation and management of (transboundary) watersheds and ecosystems, as well as the climate-proofing of relevant infrastructure. The focus on hydropower in Andean watersheds highlights the importance of protecting the remaining Andean forest ecosystems, which supply almost 50% of the water budget of existing dams (Sáenz and Mulligan, 2013). Policies are needed to support the diversification of the overall energy mix, promote investment (public and private) in this sector and also regulate its socioeconomic and environmental impacts on mountain systems. Policy gaps • Adaptation policies in the energy sector require updated vulnerability studies of hydropower provision per basin, whereby adaptation measures are prioritized for themost vulnerable basins. Studies on the impact of climate change on future water availability are needed, and have to be incorporated already in the planning and design phases of projects. • Lack of awareness of impacts of increasing hydropower generation on mountain ecosystems. For instance, there will be increased pressure and impact on mountains from energy-demanding regions and sectors, which will potentially increase ecosystem degradation and further exclude the local population. • While focusing on climate change impacts on hydropower plants, there is insufficient data and information about the impact of these plants on mountain social-ecological systems (e.g. people, landscape, water bodies, fishing). • There is insufficient political support for comprehensive diversification of energy sources.

Tominé Reservoir, Cundinamarca, Colombia

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