Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Tropical Andes mountains

Climate change hazards and trends

Climate hazards are the physical events or trends resulting from climate change that can threaten society or natural systems. For example, increased temperatures, extreme precipitation events, glacial melting and landslides can be climate hazards. The degree to which areas and policy sectors are susceptible to damage from hazards is termed their vulnerability. Vulnerability to climate hazards is dependent on varied characteristics of the society or natural system exposed. This includes the

presence of key infrastructure, environmental and socioeconomic factors, as well as governments’ and peoples’ willingness and capacity to adapt. Hazards become risks when society is both exposed to the hazard and is vulnerable to its effects. There is uncertainty about both observed and predicted climate change due to insufficient data and the complex topography of the region, which requires a high density of long-term hydro-meteorological

measurement stations. This lack of measurements represents a significant barrier in the development of adaptation policies. In the Tropical Andes, projections of future climate change often appear to exacerbate climate events already being observed: wetter areas become wetter, drier areas become drier, leading in turn to more dramatic precipitation events and more dramatic droughts (Magrin et al., 2014). In other areas, projections show that some very dry areas may also become wetter (Hijmans et al., 2005). Temperature Numerous studies confirm that the Tropical Andes have undergone significant warming in the last century (Magrin et al., 2014), yet the degree of warming in different locations differs significantly, partly because of the rugged landscape and the increase in warming with increasing elevation. From the information available, some broad trends have been observed. Mean warming of about 0.7-1°C was recorded in the Tropical Andes in the latter half of the 1900s. From 1939 to 2006, the increase was about 0.1°C per decade (Vuille et al., 2008). The rate of warming accelerated in later years: from 1980 to 2005 the rate of warming was about 0.33°C per decade (Barry, 2005). Only two out of the 20 last years have been below the average recorded from 1961 to 1990 (Vuille et al., 2008). However, the increase varies greatly within the region and at the local level. The highest warming has been observed in parts of the Colombian Andes (Ruiz et al., 2008) and in the Central Andes of Peru and the Altiplano (Valdivia et al., 2013; Vuille, 2013).

Nor Yauyos-Cochas Landscape Reserve, Peru

18